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Possible effects of future domestic heat pump installations on the UK energy supply

机译：未来家用热泵装置对英国能源供应的可能影响

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摘要

This research study investigates the effects of the large-scale installation of domestic heat pumps on the UK electricity supply over the short to medium term. A BREDEM-based dwelling energy model, incorporating a model of heat pump performance, is enhanced for the effects of varying monthly temperatures. Data from the English Housing Survey (2007) are analysed using this model to estimate electricity consumption to 2020 and 2050, and simulate scenarios for replacing existing heating systems by ground or air source heat pumps. The type of heat pump (ground or air source) is determined by dwelling plot dimensions data from the EHS. Modelling results for 2020 showed that a policy of replacing the heating systems with the highest emissions could reduce or at least minimise the increase in electricity consumption and carbon emissions. Results for 2050 showed that replacement of some 80% of current gas-fired systems would enable the UK to meet its target of 80% carbon emissions reduction in this sector when accompanied by simultaneous decarbonisation of the electricity supply. These results provide some support for the UK government's policy of subsidizing heat pump installations through the Renewable Heat Incentive payments while indicating that meeting emission targets requires far greater adoption of these systems than current ambitions.
机译：这项研究调查了短期到中期，大规模安装家用热泵对英国电力供应的影响。基于BREDEM的住宅能源模型（结合了热泵性能模型）得到了增强，以适应每月温度变化的影响。使用此模型分析了英国住房调查（2007）的数据，以估算到2020年和2050年的用电量，并模拟了用地面或空气源热泵替代现有供暖系统的方案。热泵的类型（地面或空气源）由EHS的住宅小区尺寸数据确定。 2020年的模型结果表明，更换排放量最高的供暖系统的政策可以减少或至少最小化电力消耗和碳排放量的增加。 2050年的结果表明，在电力供应同时脱碳的同时，更换约80％的当前燃气系统将使英国能够实现其在该部门减少80％碳排放的目标。这些结果为英国政府通过可再生热激励措施补贴热泵装置的政策提供了一些支持，同时表明要达到排放目标，需要比目前的野心更大地采用这些系统。

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