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Multi-renewable management: Interactions between wind and solar within uncertain technology ecological system

机译：多再次可再生管理：不确定技术生态系统中风与太阳能之间的相互作用

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摘要

By using stochastic Lotka-Volterra model, we make a cross-country analysis to potential interactions between penetrations of wind and photovoltaic (PV) technology within uncertain technology ecological systems, and explore the possible distributions of stochastic technology proliferation orbits. We find both positive and negative scale effects for wind markets, while PV solar markets are consistently scale-restrictive for all the target countries; the current technology interactions are dominated by mutualism and prey-predator types, of which prey-predator relationships mainly exist in the US, China and Italy, with PV solar to be predators. Most importantly, we find significant relationships between stochastic technology diffusion orbits and deterministic technology equilibrium orbit; specifically, random orbits of cumulative installed capacity for both wind and PV solar oscillate around the equilibrium orbit under the deterministic Lotka-Volterra model, normally distributed, and the mean orbit of such large-scale random orbits converges to the analytic equilibrium orbit. This finding makes great sense to identify countries with stable technology diffusion distributions, and contributes to exploit predictive features of stochastic Lotka-Volterra model. On this basis, we recognize 3 countries with normally distributed random orbits of technology penetration, i.e., India, Japan and Italy, and three-year forecasts to 2020 are provided for both wind and PV solar technology.
机译：通过使用随机Lotka-Volterra模型，我们对不确定技术生态系统内风和光伏（PV）技术的穿透之间的潜在相互作用进行了越野分析，并探讨了随机技术增殖轨道的可能分布。我们为风市场找到了积极和负面效果，而光伏太阳能市场对所有目标国家持续规模限制;目前的技术互动是由互动和捕食者类型的主导，其中捕食者关系主要存在于美国，中国和意大利，PV太阳能致捕食者。最重要的是，我们在随机技术扩散轨道与确定性技术平衡轨道之间找到了重要的关系;具体而言，在确定性Lotka-Volterra模型，通常分布的确定性Lotka-Volterra模型下的风和光伏太阳能的累积容量的随机轨道绕过平衡轨道，并且这种大规模随机轨道的平均轨道收敛于分析均衡轨道。这一发现对识别具有稳定技术扩散分布的国家具有很大意义，并有助于利用随机Lotka-Volterra模型的预测特征。在此基础上，我们认识到3个具有正常分布的技术渗透的随机轨道，即印度，日本和意大利，以及风电和光伏太阳能技术为2020年提供了三年的预测。

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