• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Energy Conversion & Management >Wind resource evolution in Europe under different scenarios of climate change characterised by the novel Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
【24h】

Wind resource evolution in Europe under different scenarios of climate change characterised by the novel Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

机译：欧洲风力资源进化在不同的气候变化场景下，其特征在于新的共享社会经济途径

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Wind energy is a fundamental pillar of the energy mix in Europe ? hence the need for understanding the evolution of the wind energy resource under climate change. For this purpose, near-, mid- and long-term wind speed projections from 18 global climate models are considered and a multi-model ensemble is constructed with the ones found to best reproduce past-present conditions. The evolution and temporal variability of wind power is investigated considering different climate change scenarios through the novel Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). More specifically, two SSPs are considered, each corresponding to its own socio-economic and political environment and, therefore, its own level of greenhouse emissions: SSP5-8.5 (highest emissions scenario) and SSP2-4.5 (intermediate emissions scenario). Both scenarios lead to a significant reduction (up to 35%) in wind power density in northern Continental Europe and the Central Mediterranean, and an increase of similar magnitude in West Finland. Over the Atlantic Ocean, Ireland and Britain the resource is also projected to decrease significantly. In other regions, however, the general trend (positive or negative) depends on the SSP scenario. This is the case, notably, of Central Europe, with considerable growth in SSP2-4.5 but some reduction in SSP5-8.5. Thus, in the intermediate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5) both growth and decline in wind power density are forecast, depending on the region. By contrast, in the highest emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) the forecast is a general decrease, of the order of 15% overall, with an annual rate of change of approximately ?0.2% and an increase in seasonal variability. These trends will affect the energy production of wind farms and, therefore, need to be accounted for in assessing wind power projects in Europe.
机译：风能是欧洲能源组合的基本支柱吗？因此，需要了解气候变化下风能资源的演变。为此，考虑了来自18个全球气候模型的附近，长期和长期的风速突起，并且构建了一个多模型集合，其中包含了最佳再现的过去至今的条件。考虑到通过新型共享社会经济途径（SSP）的不同气候变化情景，研究了风电的演变和时间变化。更具体地说，考虑了两个SSP，每个SSP对应于其自身的社会经济和政治环境，因此，其自身的温室排放水平：SSP5-8.5（最高排放情景）和SSP2-4.5（中级排放场景）。这两种情况都导致欧洲北部和中部地中海风电密度的大幅减少（高达35％），以及西芬兰西部的类似幅度增加。在大西洋，爱尔兰和英国资源也被预计明显减少。然而，在其他地区，一般趋势（正面或负面）取决于SSP场景。这是这种情况，特别是在中欧的情况下，SSP2-4.5的增长相当大，但SSP5-8.5的一些减少。因此，在中间排放场景中（SSP2-4.5），预测风电密度的增长和下降，取决于该区域。相比之下，在最高排放场景（SSP5-8.5）中，预测总体上降15％，年度变化率约为约0.2％，季节性变化增加。这些趋势将影响风电场的能源生产，因此需要考虑评估欧洲风电项目。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号