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首页> 外文期刊>Energy Conversion & Management >Techno-economic analysis of a solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) concentrator for building application in Sweden using Monte Carlo method
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Techno-economic analysis of a solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) concentrator for building application in Sweden using Monte Carlo method

机译：使用蒙特卡罗方法对瑞典建筑应用中的太阳能光伏/热能（PV / T）聚光器进行技术经济分析

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摘要

The solar energy share in Sweden will grow up significantly in next a few decades. Such transition offers not only great opportunity but also uncertainties for the emerging solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) technologies. This paper therefore aims to conduct a techno-economic evaluation of a reference solar PV/T concentrator in Sweden for building application. An analytical model is developed based on the combinations of Monte Carlo simulation techniques and multi energy-balance/financial equations, which takes into account of the integrated uncertainties and risks of various variables. In the model, 11 essential input variables, i.e. average daily solar irradiance, electrical/thermal efficiency, prices of electricity/heating, operation & management (OM) cost, PV/T capital cost, debt to equity ratio, interest rate, discount rate, and inflation rate, are considered, while the economic evaluation metrics, such as levelized cost of energy (LCOE), net present value (NPV), and payback period (PP), are primarily assessed. According to the analytical results, the mean values of LCOE, NPV and PP of the reference PV/T connector are observed at 1.27 SEK/kW h (0.127 (sic)/kW h), 18,812.55 SEK (1881.255 (sic)) and 10 years during its 25 years lifespan, given the project size at 10.37 m(2) and capital cost at 4482-5378 SEK/m(2) (448.2-537.8 (sic)/m(2)). The positive NPV indicates that the investment on the selected PV/T concentrator will be profitable as the projected earnings exceeds the anticipated costs, depending on the NPV decision rule. The sensitivity analysis and the parametric study illustrate that the economic performance of the reference PV/T concentrator in Sweden is mostly proportional to solar irradiance, debt to equity ratio and heating price, but disproportionate to capital cost and discount rate. Together with additional market analysis of PV/T technologies in Sweden, it is expected that this paper could clarify the economic situation of PV/T technologies in Sweden and provide a useful model for their further investment decisions, in order to achieve sustainable and low-carbon economics, with an expanded quantitative discussion of the real economic or policy scenarios that may lead to those outcomes.
机译：未来几十年，瑞典的太阳能份额将显着增长。这种过渡不仅为新兴的太阳能光伏/热能（PV / T）技术提供了巨大的机遇，而且还带来了不确定性。因此，本文旨在对瑞典的建筑用参考太阳能PV / T集中器进行技术经济评估。基于蒙特卡洛模拟技术和多个能量平衡/财务方程的组合，开发了一个分析模型，该模型考虑了综合不确定性和各种变量的风险。在模型中，有11个基本输入变量，即平均日照度，电/热效率，电/热价格，运营和管理（OM）成本，PV / T资本成本，债务权益比率，利率，折现率会考虑通货膨胀率和通货膨胀率，同时主要评估经济评估指标，例如能源平均成本（LCOE），净现值（NPV）和投资回收期（PP）。根据分析结果，参考PV / T连接器的LCOE，NPV和PP的平均值分别为1.27 SEK / kW h（0.127（sic）/ kW h），18,812.55 SEK（1881.255（sic））和10假设项目规模为10.37 m（2），资本成本为4482-5378 SEK / m（2）（448.2-537.8（sic）/ m（2）），则在其25年的使用寿命中可以使用5年。净现值为正表示在选定的PV / T集中器上进行的投资将获利，因为预计收益超过了预期成本，具体取决于NPV决策规则。敏感性分析和参数研究表明，瑞典参比PV / T聚光器的经济绩效主要与太阳辐照度，债务权益比率和供暖价格成正比，但与资本成本和贴现率不成比例。结合瑞典对PV / T技术的其他市场分析，预计本文可以阐明瑞典PV / T技术的经济状况，并为他们的进一步投资决策提供有用的模型，以实现可持续且低成本的目标。碳经济学，对可能导致这些结果的实际经济或政策情景进行了定量讨论。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Conversion & Management》 |2018年第6期|8-24|共17页
  • 作者

    Gu Yaxiu; Zhang Xingxing; Myhren Jonn Are; Han Mengjie; Chen Xiangjie; Yuan Yanping;

  • 作者单位

    Changan Univ, Dept Bldg Environm & Energy Engn, Xian 710064, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;

    Dalarna Univ, Sch Ind Technol & Business Studies, S-79188 Falun, Sweden;

    Dalarna Univ, Sch Ind Technol & Business Studies, S-79188 Falun, Sweden;

    Dalarna Univ, Sch Ind Technol & Business Studies, S-79188 Falun, Sweden;

    Univ Nottingham, Dept Architecture & Built Environm, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England;

    Southwest Jiaotong Univ, Sch Mech Engn, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan, Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    PV/T; Monte Carlo; Economic; LCOE; NPV; Payback period;

    机译：PV / T;Monte Carlo;经济;LCOE;NPV;投资回收期;

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