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首页> 外文期刊>Energy Conversion & Management >Long-term generation scheduling of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade hydro plants considering monthly streamflow forecasting error
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Long-term generation scheduling of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade hydro plants considering monthly streamflow forecasting error

机译：考虑月流量预报误差的溪洛渡和向家坝梯级水电站的长期发电调度

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Reliable streamflow forecasts are very significant for reservoir operation and hydropower generation. But for monthly streamflow forecasting, the forecasting result is unreliable and it is hard to be utilized, although it has a certain reference value for long-term hydro generation scheduling. Current researches mainly focus on deterministic scheduling, and few of them consider the uncertainties. So this paper considers the forecasting error which exists in monthly streamflow forecasting and proposes a new long-term hydro generation scheduling method called forecasting dispatching chart for Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade hydro plants. First, in order to consider the uncertainties of inflow, Monte Carlo simulation is employed to generate streamflow data according to the forecasting value and error distribution curves. Then the large amount of data obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used as inputs for long-term hydro generation scheduling model. Because of the large amount of streamflow data the computation speed of conventional algorithm cannot meet the demand. So an improved parallel progressive optimality algorithm is proposed to solve the long-term hydro generation scheduling problem and a series of solutions are obtained. These solutions constitute an interval set, unlike the unique solution in the traditional deterministic long-term hydro generation scheduling. At last, the confidence intervals of the solutions are calculated and forecasting dispatching chart is proposed as a new-method for long-term hydro generation scheduling. A set of rules are proposed corresponding to forecasting dispatching chart. The chart is tested for practical operations and achieves good performance. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：可靠的流量预测对于水库运营和水力发电非常重要。但是，对于月流量预测，尽管对长期的水力发电调度具有一定的参考价值，但其预测结果并不可靠，难以利用。当前的研究主要集中在确定性调度上，很少考虑不确定性。因此，本文考虑了每月流量预报中存在的预报误差，提出了溪洛渡和向家坝梯级水电站的长期水力发电调度新方法，即预报调度图。首先，为了考虑入流的不确定性，采用蒙特卡罗模拟法根据预报值和误差分布曲线生成水流数据。然后，将通过蒙特卡洛模拟获得的大量数据用作长期水力发电调度模型的输入。由于流数据量大，传统算法的计算速度无法满足要求。为此，提出了一种改进的并行渐进最优算法，以解决长期水力发电调度问题，并获得了一系列解决方案。与传统的确定性长期水力发电调度中的独特解决方案不同，这些解决方案构成了一个间隔集。最后，计算了解决方案的置信区间，并提出了预测调度图作为长期水力发电调度的新方法。提出了一套与预报调度图相对应的规则。该图表已针对实际操作进行了测试，并获得了良好的性能。 （C）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

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