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Energy mix optimization from an energy security perspective

机译：从能源安全角度优化能源结构

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摘要

In this article, an integrated methodology is presented to assess an optimal mix and perspective development of energy generation technologies not only by technical, economic or other criteria, but also from an energy security perspective. The energy security is evaluated in terms of energy system resistance to disturbances. The methodology comprises several models, such as a stochastic model of energy systems disturbance parameters, economic-optimization model of energy systems functioning, metric and analysis techniques of energy security. The perspective development and functioning of the energy systems with stochastic disturbances is modelled using economic-optimization model with the development of different energy generation technologies. An open source energy modelling system is used as a tool for this model. The concept of energy security coefficient, which is calculated to assess energy security in terms of energy price increase and the amounts of unsupplied energy due to the disturbance consequences, is presented in the article as well. The developed methodology is applied to the case study of the reference energy system. Its various development scenarios with different energy generation technologies are analysed according to the share of technologies in the energy production. Scenarios are simulated in the stochastic environment of various disturbances and results are obtained in terms of variation of energy security coefficient over time by comparing scenarios from the energy security point of view. Finally, the results of the development scenarios are discussed, threshold shares in the energy production and optimal mix of energy generation technologies in terms of energy security are proposed, limitations of the case study are identified and some general conclusions are given.
机译：在本文中，提出了一种综合方法论，不仅可以通过技术，经济或其他标准，而且可以从能源安全的角度评估能源生产技术的最佳组合和发展前景。根据能源系统抗干扰性评估能源安全性。该方法包括几个模型，例如能源系统扰动参数的随机模型，能源系统运行的经济优化模型，能源安全的度量和分析技术。随着经济发展的优化模型，随着不同能源生产技术的发展，对具有随机干扰的能源系统的观点发展和功能进行了建模。开源能源建模系统用作该模型的工具。本文还介绍了能源安全系数的概念，该概念是根据能源价格上涨和由于干扰后果而导致的未供应能源量来评估能源安全的。所开发的方法应用于参考能源系统的案例研究。根据能源生产中的技术份额，分析了其具有不同能源产生技术的各种发展方案。在各种干扰的随机环境中模拟情景，并通过从能源安全角度比较情景来获得随能源安全系数随时间变化的结果。最后，讨论了发展方案的结果，提出了能源生产中的阈值份额和就能源安全而言的能源生产技术的最佳组合，确定了案例研究的局限性并给出了一些一般性结论。

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