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Analyzing driving forces behind changes in energy vulnerability of Spanish electricity generation through a Divisia index-based method

机译：通过基于Divisia指数的方法分析西班牙发电能源脆弱性变化背后的驱动力

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摘要

High energy dependence on fossil raises vulnerability concerns about security of supply and energy cost. This research examines the impact of high dependence of imported fuels for power generation in Spain through the quantification and analysis of the driving forces behind the change in its electricity bill. Following logarithmic mean Divisia indexes approach, we present and perform a new method that enables a complete decomposition of changes in electricity vulnerability into contributions from several drivers. In fact, we identify five predefined factors behind the variations in vulnerability in Spain during the 1998-2011 period: fuel price, average heat rate, fuel dependence, degree of electricity importance and energy intensity. The application of this approach reveals a significant increase in Spanish vulnerability in the last two decades, promoted by increments in fuel price and importance of electricity over the primary energy consumption, but especially by increasing fuel dependence (particularly gas dependence). Therefore, findings mainly advocate for those strategies aimed at reducing Spanish energy dependence. Also those improving thermal efficiency and energy intensity are indicated.
机译：对化石的高能源依赖性增加了对供应安全和能源成本的脆弱性担忧。这项研究通过量化和分析其电费账单变动背后的驱动力，检验了西班牙对进口燃料高度依赖的影响。遵循对数均值Divisia指数方法，我们介绍并执行了一种新方法，该方法可以将电力脆弱性的变化完全分解为几个驱动因素的贡献。实际上，我们确定了1998-2011年西班牙脆弱性变化背后的五个预定义因素：燃料价格，平均发热量，燃料依赖性，电力重要性程度和能源强度。这种方法的应用表明，过去二十年来西班牙的脆弱性显着增加，这是由燃料价格的上涨和电力相对于一次能源消耗的重要性推动的，尤其是燃料依赖性（尤其是气体依赖性）的增加。因此，研究结果主要提倡那些旨在减少西班牙能源依赖的策略。还指出了那些提高热效率和能量强度的方法。

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