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Energy demand in China: Comparison of characteristics between the US and China in rapid urbanization stage

机译：中国的能源需求：快速城市化阶段中美两国的特征比较

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摘要

China's energy demand has shown characteristics of rigid growth in the current urbanization stage. This paper applied the panel data model and the cointegration model to examine the determinants of energy demand in China, and then forecasts China's energy demand based on the scenario analysis. Results demonstrate an inverted U-shaped relationship between energy demand and economic growth in the long term. In business as usual scenario, China's energy consumption will reach 6493.07 million tons of coal equivalent in 2030. The conclusions can be drawn on the basis of the comparison of characteristics between the US and China. First, energy demand has rigid growth characteristics in the rapid urbanization stage. Second, coal-dominated energy structure of China will lead to the severe problems of CO_2 emissions. Third, rapid economic growth requires that energy prices should not rise substantially, so that energy conservation will be the major strategy for China's low-carbon transition. Major policy implications are: first, urbanization can be used as an opportunity for low-carbon development; second, energy price reform is crucial for China's energy sustainability.
机译：在当前的城市化阶段，中国的能源需求呈现出刚性增长的特征。本文运用面板数据模型和协整模型研究了中国能源需求的决定因素，然后基于情景分析预测了中国的能源需求。结果表明，长期来看，能源需求与经济增长之间呈倒U型关系。在照常情况下，到2030年，中国的能源消耗将达到649307万吨标准煤。可以根据中美两国特点的比较得出结论。首先，在快速城市化阶段，能源需求具有刚性增长的特征。其次，中国以煤炭为主的能源结构将导致严重的CO_2排放问题。第三，快速的经济增长要求能源价格不应大幅上涨，因此节能将成为中国低碳转型的主要战略。主要的政策含义是：首先，城市化可以作为低碳发展的机会；第二，能源价格改革对中国的能源可持续性至关重要。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Conversion & Management》 |2014年第3期|128-139|共12页
  • 作者

    Boqiang Lin; Xiaoling Ouyang;

  • 作者单位

    Newhuadu Business School, Minjiang University, Fuzhou 350108, China,Collaborative Innovation Center for Energy Economics and Energy Policy, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361005, China;

    School of Energy Research, College of Energy, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361005, China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Energy demand; Comparison of characteristics; Urbanization; US; China;

    机译：能源需求;特性比较;城市化;我们;中国;

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