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A study on the characteristics, predictions and policies of China's eight main power grids

机译：中国八个主要电网的特征，预测和政策研究

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摘要

Electricity is an indispensable energy source for modern social and economic development. However, large-scale blackouts can cause incalculable loss to society. In 2012, three major Indian power grids collapsed, resulting in the interruption of the electricity supply to over 600 million people. To avoid an event like that, China needs to forecast the power generation and consumption of eight power grids effectively. This paper first analyzes the characteristics of eight power grids and then proposes a combined model based on three improved grey models optimized by a differential evolution algorithm to predict electricity production and consumption of each power grid. The optimized combined forecasting model provides a better prediction than other models, and it is also the most workable and satisfactory model. Experiment results show electricity production and consumption would increase. In consideration of the real situation and existing problems, some suggestions are proposed. The government could decrease-thermal power and exploit renewable energy power, like hydroelectric power, wind power and solar power, to ensure the safe and reliable operation of China's major power grids and protect environment.
机译：电力是现代社会和经济发展必不可少的能源。但是，大规模停电会给社会造成不可估量的损失。 2012年，印度三大电网崩溃，导致超过6亿人的电力供应中断。为避免发生此类事件，中国需要有效预测八个电网的发电量和用电量。本文首先分析了八个电网的特征，然后提出了一个基于三个改进的灰色模型的组合模型，该模型通过差分进化算法进行了优化，可以预测每个电网的发电量和消耗量。优化的组合预测模型比其他模型提供了更好的预测，它也是最可行和令人满意的模型。实验结果表明，电力生产和消耗将会增加。考虑到实际情况和存在的问题，提出了一些建议。政府可以减少火力发电并开发水电，风能和太阳能等可再生能源，以确保中国主要电网的安全可靠运行并保护环境。

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