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首页> 外文期刊>Energy Conversion & Management >Parameterization of a simple model to estimate monthly global solar radiation based on meteorological variables, and evaluation of existing solar radiation models for Tabouk, Saudi Arabia
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Parameterization of a simple model to estimate monthly global solar radiation based on meteorological variables, and evaluation of existing solar radiation models for Tabouk, Saudi Arabia

机译：参数化一个简单模型的参数化，可根据气象变量估算每月全球太阳辐射量，并对沙特阿拉伯塔波克的现有太阳辐射模型进行评估

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摘要

Using 9 years of solar radiation data, we established a simple model to calculate the monthly mean global solar radiation on a horizontal surface in Tabouk (28.38° N, 36.6° E, Saudi Arabia). The model correlates the global solar radiation with five meteorological parameters. These parameters are the perceptible water vapor, air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and the mean monthly daily fraction of possible sunshine hours. The estimated global radiation from the model was compared with the measured values using the mean bias error (MBE), coefficient of correlation (R), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean percentage error (MPE). The t statistics were also applied as another indication of suitability. The model has a high coefficient of correlation (R = 0.99), MBE =-14 × 10~(-4) kWh/m~2, RMSE = 0.10 kW h/m~2, and MPE = -0.03%. It is believed that the model developed in this work is applicable for estimating, with great accuracy. The monthly mean daily global radiation at any site having similar conditions to those found in Tabouk.rnFurthermore, 29 regression models available in the literature were used to estimate the global solar radiation data for Tabouk. The selected models were different in terms of the variables they use and in the number of the variables they contained. The models were compared on the basis of the statistical errors considered above. Apart from Abdall's model, which showed a reasonable estimate (MPE = -2.04%, MBE= -0.22 kW h/m~2, and RMSE= 0.59 kW h/m~2), all the models under or overestimate the measured solar radiation values. Comparisons between these models and the produced model, from this study, were also considered. According to the statistical results, the model of Abdall showed the prediction closest to those estimated using the developed model.
机译：利用9年的太阳辐射数据，我们建立了一个简单的模型来计算Tabouk（北纬28.38°，东经36.6°，沙特阿拉伯）的水平面上的月平均全球太阳辐射。该模型将全球太阳辐射与五个气象参数相关联。这些参数是可感知的水蒸气，空气温度，相对湿度，大气压以及可能的日照时间的每月平均每日分数。使用平均偏差误差（MBE），相关系数（R），均方根误差（RMSE）和平均百分比误差（MPE），将来自模型的估计总体辐射与测量值进行比较。 t统计也被用作适应性的另一个指标。该模型具有较高的相关系数（R = 0.99），MBE = -14×10〜（-4）kWh / m〜2，RMSE = 0.10 kW h / m〜2，MPE = -0.03％。可以相信，这项工作中开发的模型可以非常准确地用于估计。在与Tabouk相似的任何条件下，任何地点的月平均日全球辐射量。此外，文献中可用的29个回归模型用于估算Tabouk的全球太阳辐射数据。所选模型在使用的变量和包含的变量数量方面有所不同。根据上述统计误差对模型进行比较。除了Abdall模型显示出合理的估计值（MPE = -2.04％，MBE = -0.22 kW h / m〜2和RMSE = 0.59 kW h / m〜2）之外，所有模型均低于或高估了测量的太阳辐射价值观。还考虑了这些模型与本研究产生的模型之间的比较。根据统计结果，阿卜杜勒（Abdall）模型显示的预测最接近使用已开发模型估算的预测。

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