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Statistical modelling of directional wind speeds using mixtures of von Mises distributions: Case study

机译：使用冯·米塞斯分布的混合气对定向风速进行统计建模：案例研究

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摘要

A finite mixture model of continuous variable probability is used in this paper to represent the distribution of directional wind speed. The model is comprised of a finite mixture of von Mises (vM-pdf) distributions. The parameters of the model are estimated using the least squares method. The range of integration to compute the mean angle and the standard deviation of wind direction is adjusted to minimum variance requirements. The suitability of the distributions is judged from the coefficient of determination R~2. The model is applied in this paper to wind direction data recorded at several weather stations located in the Canary Islands (Spain). The conclusion reached is that the mixture distribution used in this paper provides a very flexible model for wind direction studies and can be applied in a widespread manner to represent the wind direction regimes in zones with several modes or prevailing wind directions. In the case of the Canary Islands, mixtures of two vM-pdfs provide better fits in all the cases analysed than those obtained with the models proposed in the specialised literature on wind energy. The conclusion is also drawn that when the number of components JV of the mixture distribution increases, the value of R~2 increases. However, the variations in R~2 are not significant for values of N greater than six.
机译：本文采用连续变量概率的有限混合模型来表示风向的分布。该模型由冯·米塞斯（v Mi-pdf）分布的有限混合组成。使用最小二乘法估计模型的参数。将计算平均角度和风向标准偏差的积分范围调整到最小方差要求。根据确定系数R〜2判断分布是否合适。本文将该模型应用于在加那利群岛（西班牙）的几个气象站记录的风向数据。得出的结论是，本文中使用的混合气分布为风向研究提供了一个非常灵活的模型，并且可以广泛地应用于代表具有多种模式或主要风向的区域中的风向状况。以加那利群岛为例，与在风能专业文献中提出的模型所获得的模型相比，两种vM-pdf的混合物在所有分析情况下均提供了更好的拟合度。还得出结论，当混合物分布的组分JV的数量增加时，R〜2的值增加。然而，对于大于6的N值，R〜2的变化并不显着。

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