...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Energy Conversion & Management >Influence of the level of fit of a density probability function to wind-speed data on the WECS mean power output estimation
【24h】

Influence of the level of fit of a density probability function to wind-speed data on the WECS mean power output estimation

机译：密度概率函数对风速数据的拟合程度对WECS平均功率输出估计的影响

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Static methods which are based on statistical techniques to estimate the mean power output of a WECS (wind energy conversion system) have been widely employed in the scientific literature related to wind energy. In the static method which we use in this paper, for a given wind regime probability distribution function and a known WECS power curve, the mean power output of a WECS is obtained by resolving the integral, usually using numerical evaluation techniques, of the product of these two functions. In this paper an analysis is made of the influence of the level of fit between an empirical probability density function of a sample of wind speeds and the probability density function of the adjusted theoretical model on the relative error r. made in the estimation of the mean annual power output of a WECS. The mean power output calculated through the use of a quasi-dynamic or chronological method, that is to say using time-series of wind speed data and the power versus wind speed characteristic of the wind turbine, serves as the reference. The suitability of the distributions is judged from the adjusted R~2 statistic (R_a~2). Hourly mean wind speeds recorded at 16 weather stations located in the Canarian Archipelago, an extensive catalogue of wind-speed probability models and two wind turbines of 330 and 800 kW rated power are used in this paper. Among the general conclusions obtained, the following can be pointed out: (a) that the R_a~2 statistic might be useful as an initial gross indicator of the relative error made in the mean annual power output estimation of a WECS when a probabilistic method is employed; (b) the relative errors tend to decrease, in accordance with a trend line defined by a second-order polynomial, as R_a~2 increases.
机译：基于统计技术来估计WECS（风能转换系统）的平均功率输出的静态方法已广泛用于与风能有关的科学文献中。在本文中使用的静态方法中，对于给定的风况概率分布函数和已知的WECS功率曲线，通常通过使用数值评估技术对积分的乘积进行解析来获得WECS的平均功率输出。这两个功能。本文分析了风速样本的经验概率密度函数与调整后的理论模型的概率密度函数之间的拟合程度对相对误差r的影响。在估算WECS的年平均发电量时得出。通过使用准动态或按时间顺序的方法（即使用风速数据的时间序列以及风力涡轮机的功率对风速特性）计算出的平均功率输出作为参考。根据调整后的R〜2统计量（R_a〜2）判断分布的适用性。本文使用了位于加那利群岛的16个气象站的每小时平均风速，广泛的风速概率模型目录以及两台额定功率分别为330和800 kW的风力涡轮机。在获得的一般结论中，可以指出以下几点：（a）当概率方法为WCS时，R_a〜2统计量可能用作WECS平均年发电量估计中相对误差的初始总指标。受雇（b）根据二阶多项式定义的趋势线，随着R_a〜2的增加，相对误差趋于减小。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号