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Three different applications of genetic algorithm (GA) search techniques on oil demand estimation

机译:遗传算法(GA)搜索技术在石油需求估算中的三种不同应用

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摘要

This present study develops three scenarios to analyze oil consumption and make future projections based on the Genetic algorithm (GA) notion, and examines the effect of the design parameters on the oil utilization values. The models developed in the non-linear form are applied to the oil demand of Turkey. The GA Oil Demand Estimation Model (GAO-DEM) is developed to estimate the future oil demand values based on Gross National Product (GNP), population, import, export, oil production, oil import and car, truck and bus sales figures. Among these models, the GA-PGOiTI model, which uses population, GNP, oil import, truck sales and import as design parameters/indicators, was found to provide the best fit solution with the observed data. It may be concluded that the proposed models can be used as alternative solution and estimation techniques for the future oil utilization values of any country.
机译:本研究基于遗传算法(GA)概念,提出了三种方案来分析油耗并做出未来预测,并检验设计参数对油利用率值的影响。以非线性形式开发的模型适用于土耳其的石油需求。 GA石油需求估算模型(GAO-DEM)的开发目的是根据国民生产总值(GNP),人口,进口,出口,石油生产,石油进口以及汽车,卡车和公共汽车的销售数据估算未来的石油需求值。在这些模型中,发现使用人口,国民生产总值,石油进口,卡车销售和进口作为设计参数/指标的GA-PGOiTI模型可以提供最佳的解决方案。可以得出结论,建议的模型可以用作任何国家未来石油利用价值的替代解决方案和估算技术。

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