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The role of oil price uncertainty shocks on oil-exporting countries

机译：石油价格不确定性对石油出口国的作用

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This paper examines the effect of oil price uncertainty on industrial production and the exchange rates in four oil exporting countries, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Russia. Within the block-exogenous Bayesian SVAR framework we find that the oil price uncertainty shocks result in a persistent drop of industrial production, which is heterogeneous in its depth across the analysed countries. The exchange rate depreciates instantly in reaction to the oil price uncertainty shock, but this reaction is long-lasting only in the case of developing countries, Mexico and Russia. We show that oil price uncertainty shocks is an important driver of industrial production fluctuations in all oil exporting countries, whereas the contribution of these shocks to exchange rate fluctuations varies from country to country and is greatest in Mexico and the lowest for Norway. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：本文研究了石油出口国，加拿大，墨西哥，挪威和俄罗斯工业生产对工业生产和汇率的影响。在嵌入式外源贝叶斯SVAR框架内，我们发现石油价格不确定性冲击导致持续的工业生产下降，这在分析的国家的深度中是异质的。汇率立即贬值对油价不确定性休克的反应，但这种反应仅在发展中国家，墨西哥和俄罗斯的情况下持久。我们表明石油价格不确定性冲击是所有石油出口国的工业生产波动的重要推动力，而这些冲击对汇率波动的贡献因国家而异，墨西哥最大，挪威最低。 （c）2020 Elsevier B.v.保留所有权利。

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