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Kuwait's energy subsidy reduction: Examining economic and CO_2 emission effects with or without compensation

机译：科威特减少能源补贴：在有偿或无偿的情况下检查经济和CO_2排放的影响

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This paper examined economy-wide impacts of reducing energy subsidy in Kuwait. A social accounting matrix (SAM) was constructed and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was developed. The CGE model was used to simulate separate and combined effects of a 25% reduction of subsidy to three energy products: natural gas, oil, and electricity. This policy shock was applied to the model in two scenarios. In each round, the subsidy reductions were applied to each energy product separately in turn and then finally simultaneously to all energy products. In the first scenario, subsidy reductions were applied and results were compared with the baseline scenario given in the SAM. This yielded adverse effects across a range of endogenous variables. It leads to large energy price increases, as high as 255% (for electricity). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) marginally declined, by 0.28%. In scenario 2, the subsidy reduction was accompanied with cash transfers to energy users a compensation for welfare loss, the amount of transfer was equivalent to the sum of the amount of subsidy reductions. The results indicated that such transfers would reduce the adverse effects of the policy reform. The effects on GDP was reversed, it rose by 1.01%. The price effect was slightly lower, electricity price rose by 245%. Finally, sensitivity of the model results was examined by varying the elasticity of the substitution of composite energy and capital in production. Greater possibility of substitution seems to cause subsidy reform to have much larger positive (or smaller adverse) economy-wide effects. The simulation experiments suggest that subsidy reform would need to be accompanied by demand side stimulus or supply side initiatives to encourage energy conservation. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：本文研究了减少科威特能源补贴对整个经济的影响。建立了社会核算矩阵（SAM），并建立了可计算的一般均衡（CGE）模型。 CGE模型用于模拟对三种能源产品（天然气，石油和电力）的补贴减少25％的单独和组合效果。在两种情况下，此政策冲击已应用于模型。在每个回合中，补贴削减分别依次应用于每个能源产品，然后最终同时应用于所有能源产品。在第一种情况下，应用补贴减少，并将结果与​​SAM中给出的基准情况进行比较。这在一系列内生变量上产生了不利影响。这导致能源价格大幅上涨，高达255％（电力）。国内生产总值（GDP）略微下降0.28％。在方案2中，补贴减少伴随着向能源用户的现金转移以补偿福利损失，转移额等于补贴减少额之和。结果表明，这种转移将减少政策改革的不利影响。对GDP的影响被扭转，上升了1.01％。价格效应略低，电价上涨了245％。最后，通过改变生产中复合能源和资本替代的弹性来检验模型结果的敏感性。替代的可能性更大，似乎会使补贴改革对整个经济产生更大的积极（或更小的不利）影响。模拟实验表明，补贴改革需要伴随需求方刺激或供应方举措，以鼓励节能。 （C）2018 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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