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Assessing the impact of oil returns on emerging stock markets: A panel data approach for ten Central and Eastern European Countries

机译:评估石油收益对新兴股票市场的影响:十个中欧和东欧国家的面板数据方法

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This paper uses an international multi-factor model in order to investigate the relationship between oil price risk and stock market returns for the emerging capital markets of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). A panel data approach is being employed for the period covering 22 October 1999 until 23 August 2007. The oil price beta is found to be negative and statistically significant suggesting that the oil price is indeed an important factor in determining stock returns. No statistically significant non-linear dependency is found between market risk and emerging market stock returns or between oil price risk and returns. Observation of conditional models shows positive reaction of emerging stock market returns to upward movements of market returns. The reaction of the stock returns to upward and downward movements of the oil market is also negative but more significant when oil prices are low.
机译:本文使用国际多因素模型来研究中欧和东欧国家(CEEC)新兴资本市场的石油价格风险与股票市场回报之间的关系。在1999年10月22日至2007年8月23日期间,采用面板数据方法。发现油价beta为负且具有统计意义,这表明油价确实是确定存货回报的重要因素。在市场风险与新兴市场股票收益之间或在石油价格风险与收益之间没有发现统计学上显着的非线性相关性。对条件模型的观察表明,新兴股票市场收益对市场收益的上升趋势具有积极的反应。股票对石油市场的向上和向下运动的反应也是负面的,但在油价低迷时更为明显。

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