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Cost-effective retrofitting of Swedish residential buildings: effects of energy price developments and discount rates

机译：瑞典住宅建筑的经济高效改造：能源价格上涨和折扣率的影响

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摘要

This paper investigates how the cost-effectiveness of different energy-saving measures (ESMs) in buildings is dependent upon energy prices and discount rates. A bottom-up modelling methodology is used to assess the profitability of different ESMs for Swedish residential buildings. The cost-effectiveness and total techno-economical potential for energy saving of each ESM are calculated for three different scenarios of energy prices up to year 2050 and for different discount rates, including an estimate of the market potentials derived by applying the implicit discount rates given in the literature. The three energy-price scenarios give similar techno-economical reductions of delivered energy (by 31–42 %), as well as a similar ranking for the investigated cost-effective ESMs. This means that there are cost-efficient opportunities for energy reductions in Swedish households for any future developments of the energy prices investigated in this work. The energy price developments have lower impacts than interest rates on the techno-economical potentials of the different ESMs. Thus, increasing energy prices cannot be expected to promote significantly the adoption of ESMs, whereas facilitating the financing of investments in ESMs and reducing other consumer barriers should play key roles in the implementation of ESMs. The importance of allaying stakeholders’ reservations is further stressed by the fact that the estimated market potentials for the ESMs are significantly lower than the techno-economical potentials, underscoring the need for policy actions that accelerate the achievement of the identified techno-economical potentials.
机译：本文研究了建筑物中不同节能措施（ESM）的成本效益如何取决于能源价格和折扣率。自下而上的建模方法用于评估瑞典住宅建筑的不同ESM的盈利能力。针对截至2050年的三种不同能源价格情景和不同折现率，计算出每个ESM的节能成本效益和技术经济总潜力，包括通过应用给定的隐式折现率估算出的市场潜力在文学中。这三种能源价格情景给出了类似的技术经济减排量（降低31％至42％），并且对调查的具有成本效益的ESM给出了相似的排名。这意味着在这项工作中调查的能源价格的任何未来发展中，瑞典家庭都有降低成本的机会。能源价格的变化对不同ESM的技术经济潜力的影响要小于利率。因此，不能期望能源价格的上涨会大大促进ESM的采用，而为ESMs的投资融资提供便利和减少其他消费者壁垒应该在ESM的实施中发挥关键作用。由于ESM的估计市场潜力明显低于技术经济潜力，因此进一步减轻了利益相关者保留的重要性，从而强调了需要采取政策行动来加速实现已确定的技术经济潜力的事实。

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