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Urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Beijing: current and future

机译：北京城市能耗和二氧化碳排放量：当前和未来

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摘要

This paper calculates the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Beijing over 2005–2011 in light of the Beijing’s energy balance table and the carbon emission coefficients of IPCC. Furthermore, based on a series of energy conservation planning program issued in Beijing, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP)-BJ model is developed to study the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Beijing’s six end-use sectors and the energy conversion sector over 2012–2030 under the BAU scenario and POL scenario. Some results are found in this research: (1) During 2005–2011, the energy consumption kept increasing, while the total CO2 emissions fluctuated obviously in 2008 and 2011. The energy structure and the industrial structure have been optimized to a certain extent. (2) If the policies are completely implemented, the POL scenario is projected to save 21.36 and 35.37 % of the total energy consumption and CO2 emissions than the BAU scenario during 2012 and 2030. (3) The POL scenario presents a more optimized energy structure compared with the BAU scenario, with the decrease of coal consumption and the increase of natural gas consumption. (4) The commerce and service sector and the energy conversion sector will become the largest contributor to energy consumption and CO2 emissions, respectively. The transport sector and the industrial sector are the two most potential sectors in energy savings and carbon reduction. In terms of subscenarios, the energy conservation in transport (TEC) is the most effective one. (5) The macroparameters, such as the GDP growth rate and the industrial structure, have great influence on the urban energy consumption and carbon emissions.
机译：本文根据北京的能源平衡表和IPCC的碳排放系数，计算了2005-2011年北京的能源消耗和CO2排放量。此外，根据在北京发布的一系列节能规划计划，开发了远程能源替代计划系统（LEAP）-BJ模型，以研究北京六个最终用途部门的能源消耗和CO2排放以及能源转化在BAU情景和POL情景下，2012-2030年的农业部门。这项研究发现了一些结果：（1）在2005年至2011年期间，能源消耗持续增加，而2008年和2011年的总CO2排放量则出现了明显的波动。能源结构和产业结构得到了一定程度的优化。 （2）如果政策得到完全实施，则POL方案预计在2012年和2030年比BAU方案节省总能耗和CO2排放的21.36％和35.37％。（3）POL方案提出了更优化的能源结构与BAU情景相比，煤炭消耗量减少，天然气消耗量增加。 （4）商业和服务业以及能源转换业将分别成为能源消耗和二氧化碳排放的最大贡献者。运输部门和工业部门是节能和减碳方面两个最有潜力的部门。在子场景中，运输节能（TEC）是最有效的一种。 （5）GDP增长率和产业结构等宏观参数对城市能源消耗和碳排放有很大影响。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Efficiency》 |2015年第3期|527-543|共17页
  • 作者

    Hao Yu; Su-Yan Pan; Bao-Jun Tang; Zhi-Fu Mi; Yan Zhang; Yi-Ming Wei;

  • 作者单位

    Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of Technology">(1);

    School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology">(2);

    Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of Technology">(1);

    School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology">(2);

    Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of Technology">(1);

    School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology">(2);

    Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of Technology">(1);

    School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology">(2);

    Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of Technology">(1);

    School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology">(2);

    Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of Technology">(1);

    School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology">(2);

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Urban; Energy consumption; CO2 emissions; Scenario analysis; LEAP model;

    机译：城市能源消耗;二氧化碳排放量;情景分析;LEAP模型;

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