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Quantification of the energy efficiency gap in the Swedish residential sector

机译：量化瑞典住宅领域的能效差距

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摘要

We present a method for quantifying the energy efficiency gap ex ante. To do this, we define the energy efficiency gap as being the difference between the ex ante market and techno-economic energy savings potentials. The estimation of market potential is based on top-down (econometric) modelling of energy demand using data from the period 1970–2005. The techno-economic estimates are made using a bottom-up building stock model (ECCABS) to assess the effects and cost-efficiency of various energy efficiency measures. Common to these two modelling approaches are two scenarios of energy prices, which differ only with respect to the carbon tax component. We implement the method for the case of useful energy demand for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector up to 2030. In comparison to the level of energy use in 2005 (74 TWh), the top-down model predicts for 2030 reductions in demand for the two price scenarios of 17 and 21 TWh respectively. The bottom-up model predicts corresponding reductions in demand of 25 and 31 TWh respectively. Thus, there is an energy efficiency gap calculated of at least 8 TWh in 2030. An implicit discount rate of 10 % would render the results from the bottom-up modelling identical to those from the top-down modelling. The presence of the energy efficiency gap indicates that there is a need for enhanced policies in order to make future reductions in energy demand reach the levels predicted by the bottom-up modelling.
机译：我们提出一种事前量化能效差距的方法。为此，我们将能效差距定义为事前市场与技术经济节能潜力之间的差额。市场潜力的估算是基于自上而下（计量经济学）的能源需求建模，使用了1970-2005年期间的数据。使用自下而上的建筑存量模型（ECCABS）进行技术经济估算，以评估各种节能措施的效果和成本效益。这两种建模方法的共同点是两种能源价格情景，它们仅在碳税组成方面有所不同。我们针对2030年之前瑞典住宅部门对空间和热水的有用能源需求实施该方法。与2005年的能源使用水平（74TWh）相比，自上而下的模型预测2030年的能源使用量减少这两种价格情景分别为17和21TWh。自下而上的模型预测需求分别减少25和31 TWh。因此，到2030年，能效差距至少为8 TWh。隐性折现率10％将使自下而上建模的结果与自上而下建模的结果相同。能源效率差距的存在表明需要加强政策，以使未来的能源需求减少量达到自下而上建模所预测的水平。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Efficiency》 |2015年第5期|975-993|共19页
  • 作者

    Eoin Ó Broin; Érika Mata; Jonas Nässén; Filip Johnsson;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Energy and Environment Energy Technology Chalmers University of Technology">(1);

    Department of Energy and Environment Energy Technology Chalmers University of Technology">(1);

    Department of Energy and Environment Physical Resource Theory Chalmers University of Technology">(2);

    Department of Energy and Environment Energy Technology Chalmers University of Technology">(1);

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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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  • 关键词

    Residential; Heating; Bottom-up; Top-down; Energy efficiency gap; Ex-ante;

    机译：住宅;加热;自下而上;自顶向下;能源效率差距;事前;

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