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Carbon tax or emissions trading? An analysis of economic and political feasibility of policy mechanisms for greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the Mexican Dower sector

机译：碳税或排放权交易？墨西哥Dower部门减少温室气体排放的政策机制的经济和政治可行性分析

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摘要

This study provides a comparative assessment of carbon-pricing instruments for the Mexican electricity sector, contrasting a carbon tax with an emissions trading scheme (ETS). The assessment is performed in terms of economic impacts and political feasibility. Model-based scenarios considering different price and quantity levels are analyzed on Balmorel-MX, a cost optimization bottom-up model of the Mexican electricity system. The political feasibility is evaluated using an online survey and interviews with representatives of relevant stakeholder groups. The assessment suggests that an ETS is the most appropriate instrument for the Mexican case. We recommend to set the cap as 31% abatement in relation to a baseline, which is suggested to be 102 MtCO(2) by 2030, given the business-as-usual baseline used as reference by the Mexican government (202 MtCO(2)) is found to leave cost-effective abatement potential untapped. An emission trading system with such design has higher cost efficiency and lower distributional effects than a carbon tax at equivalent ambition level (15 USD/tCO(2)). The political feasibility analysis confirms the assessment, as it is in line with the priorities of the stakeholder groups, allows earmarking carbon revenue and avoids exempting natural gas from carbon pricing.
机译：这项研究对墨西哥电力部门的碳定价工具进行了比较评估，将碳税与排放权交易计划（ETS）进行了对比。评估是根据经济影响和政治可行性进行的。在Balmorel-MX（墨西哥电力系统的成本优化自下而上模型）上分析了考虑了不同价格和数量水平的基于模型的方案。政治可行性通过在线调查和与相关利益相关者团体代表的访谈进行评估。评估表明，ETS是处理墨西哥案最合适的工具。我们建议将排放上限设定为相对于基准的减排量的31％，考虑到墨西哥政府使用的照常基准作为基准，建议到2030年将减排量设为102 MtCO（2）（202 MtCO（2）） ）被发现仍未开发出具有成本效益的减排潜力。与具有相同目标水平的碳税（15美元/吨CO（2））相比，具有这种设计的排放交易系统具有更高的成本效率和更低的分配效应。政治可行性分析证实了该评估，因为它符合利益相关者团体的优先事项，可以指定碳收入，并避免将天然气免于碳定价。

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