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Levelised cost of energy - A theoretical justification and critical assessment

机译：平准化的能源成本-理论依据和严格评估

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摘要

Although widely accepted as a measure of the comparative lifetime costs of electricity generation alternatives, levelised cost of energy (LCOE) lacks a theoretical foundation in the academic literature and encompasses a number of areas where caution is important. Therefore, this paper seeks to provide a theoretical foundation by comparing the metric with alternative cost of energy metrics and by undertaking a brief literature review to describe its strengths and weaknesses. In comparison with other potential measures of unit cost of energy, LCOE is found to be the preferred choice, in large part because of its widespread adoption. The weaknesses of the LCOE are found to centre on discount rate, inflation effects and the sensitivity of results to uncertainty in future commodity costs. These weaknesses are explored in the context of comparing combined cycle gas fired generation and offshore wind in the UK, based on publicly available cost measures. It is found that with variability of future fuel gas prices, and a Monte Carlo approach to modelling LCOE, the range of LCOE for CCGT is much broader in comparison to the LCOE of offshore wind. It is urged that explicit account be taken of the areas of weakness in future use of LCOE.
机译：尽管已被广泛认可为衡量发电替代品相对寿命成本的一种方法，但是平准化的能源成本（LCOE）在学术文献中缺乏理论基础，并且涵盖了许多重要的领域。因此，本文试图通过比较该指标与替代能源成本指标并进行简短的文献综述来描述其优缺点提供理论基础。与其他潜在的单位能源成本衡量方法相比，LCOE被认为是首选，很大程度上是因为其广泛采用。人们发现，LCOE的弱点集中在折现率，通货膨胀效应以及结果对未来商品成本不确定性的敏感性上。在基于公开可用的成本测算方法比较英国联合循环燃气发电和海上风电的背景下，探索了这些弱点。结果发现，由于未来燃气价格的波动性以及对LCOE建模的蒙特卡洛方法，与海上风电的LCOE相比，CCGT的LCOE范围要广泛得多。敦促明确考虑今后使用LCOE的弱点领域。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2019年第1期|169-179|共11页
  • 作者

    Aldersey-Williams J.; Rubert T.;

  • 作者单位

    Univ Strathclyde, Doctoral Training Ctr Wind & Marine Energy Syst, 204 George St, Glasgow G1 1XW, Lanark, Scotland;

    Robert Gordon Univ, Aberdeen Business Sch, Garthdee Rd, Aberdeen AB10 7QB, Scotland;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Levelised cost of energy; Offshore wind energy; Monte Carlo; Uncertainty;

    机译：能源平准化;海上风能;蒙特卡洛;不确定性;

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