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Costs and benefits of saving unprofitable generators: A simulation case study for US coal and nuclear power plants

机译：节省无利可图的发电机的成本和收益：针对美国煤炭和核电厂的模拟案例研究

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摘要

We use a detailed power sector model, E4ST, to project multi-decade effects of preventing a set of unprofitable generators from retiring. We simulate the "Grid Resiliency Pricing Rule" proposed by the US Department of Energy in 2017, and several variations, as an illustrative case study for similar national, regional, or state policies in the US or elsewhere. In the proposed policy, eligible coal and nuclear generators would be guaranteed revenues sufficient to ensure profitability. The simulation results show that, in 2025, $7.6 billion in subsidy is required to guarantee coal and nuclear generator profits. If in effect from 2020 to 2045, the policy delays the retirement of 25 GW of coal capacity and 21 GW of nuclear capacity, causes 27,000 premature deaths, increases carbon dioxide emissions by 420 million short tons, and has costs with a net present value of $263 billion during that period. The policy's net non-environmental cost for electricity end-users is $72 billion and net benefit for generation owners is $28 billion. In alternative scenarios, preventing retirement of only nuclear capacity produces positive total net benefit, while guaranteeing recovery of only going-forward costs shifts $77 billion of costs from customers to generators, but does not reduce emissions or total net cost.
机译：我们使用详细的电力部门模型E4ST来预测数十年的效果，以防止一组无利可图的发电机退役。我们模拟了美国能源部在2017年提出的“电网弹性定价规则”，并模拟了几种变体，作为美国或其他地方类似国家，地区或州政策的说明性案例研究。在拟议的政策中，将保证合格的煤炭和核能发电机收入足以确保盈利。仿真结果表明，在2025年，需要76亿美元的补贴来保证煤炭和核能发电机的利润。如果从2020年到2045年生效，该政策将延迟25吉瓦的煤炭容量和21吉瓦的核能容量的淘汰，导致27,000人过早死亡，二氧化碳排放量增加4.2亿短吨，成本为净现值在此期间为2630亿美元。该政策为电力最终用户带来的非环境净成本为720亿美元，为发电业主带来的净收益为280亿美元。在替代方案中，仅防止核电退役可产生正的总净收益，而仅保证收回前期成本，就将770亿美元的成本从客户转移到了发电机，但并没有减少排放量或总净成本。

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