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The impact of renewable portfolio standard on retail electricity market: A system dynamics model of tripartite evolutionary game

机译：可再生能源投资组合标准对零售电力市场的影响：三方演化博弈的系统动力学模型

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摘要

The renewable portfolio standard (RPS) in China is to put into effect at the beginning of 2020, which will inevitably affect the strategy of stakeholders in retail electricity market. To study the effect of RPS on retail electricity market, we take the regulators (energy regulatory authorities) and two types of power sales companies with heterogeneous strength into consideration. Then a system dynamics model of tripartite evolutionary game is developed to analyze the strategy interaction of stakeholders and simulate the corresponding evolution process. Based on the background of Chinese renewable power industry, the scenario analysis method is employed to investigate the impacts of key parameters in relation with RPS scheme on stakeholders' strategy selections. The results show that, to basically ensure all the power sales companies comply with quota obligation, TGC price of different stages should maintain at desired levels, net profit of renewable power sales should be no less than that of conventional power sales, and incentive and punishment should be within a reasonable range. In particular, the results reveal some policy effects such as reversal effect, blocking effect and over-reliance effect. More importantly, these results provide some policy recommendations for the rapid development of renewable power industry.
机译：中国的可再生能源投资组合标准（RPS）将于2020年初生效，这将不可避免地影响利益相关者在零售电力市场的战略。为了研究RPS对零售电力市场的影响，我们考虑了监管机构（能源监管机构）和具有不同实力的两种类型的电力销售公司。然后建立了一个三方演化博弈的系统动力学模型，以分析利益相关者的战略互动并模拟相应的演化过程。基于中国可再生能源发电行业的背景，采用情景分析方法，研究了与RPS方案相关的关键参数对利益相关者战略选择的影响。结果表明，为基本确保所有售电公司遵守配额义务，各阶段的三级电价应保持在期望的水平，可再生电力销售的净利润应不低于常规电力销售的净利润，并给予奖励和惩罚。应该在合理范围内。特别是，结果揭示了一些政策效应，例如逆转效应，封锁效应和过度依赖效应。更重要的是，这些结果为可再生能源产业的快速发展提供了一些政策建议。

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