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Economic and geopolitical implications of natural gas export from the East Mediterranean: The case of Lebanon

机译：东地中海天然气出口的经济和地缘政治影响：黎巴嫩的案例

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摘要

The exploration of natural gas (NG) in the East Mediterranean has been occurring in an environment characterized by continuous geopolitical instability. Countries are seeking ways to weigh development costs with geopolitical risks, which may hamper gas export to final destinations in the region, Europe and beyond. This paper aims to explore economic viability of NG export pipelines from Lebanon to different markets by developing a techno-economic model, and to assess the geopolitical implications associated with the proposed pipelines. As the economic dimension is not the only factor in any export strategy in the region, this paper will also present an overview of the major geopolitical players and their direct or indirect impact on the development of export options for Lebanon. For instance, the long lasting conflicts between the Palestinians and the Israelis, the Turkish-Cypriot knot, the provoking foreign politics of Turkey, the Iranian expanding influence in the region and the influence of the super powers in regional politics are all discussed with a view to understand the geopolitical impact on the gas export decisions. The paper concludes with policy recommendations to inform decision makers about the possible export options from economic and geopolitical perspectives.
机译：在以持续的地缘政治不稳定为特征的环境中发生了对东地中海的天然气（NG）的探索。各国正在寻求与地缘政治风险衡量发展成本的方法，这可能会阻碍出口到该地区，欧洲及以后的最终目的地。本文旨在通过开发技术经济模式，探讨黎巴嫩与不同市场的NG出口管道的经济可行性，并评估与拟议的管道相关的地缘政治影响。由于经济方面不是该地区任何出口战略的唯一因素，本文还将概述主要的地缘政治球员及其对黎巴嫩出口选择的直接或间接影响。例如，巴勒斯坦人和以色列人之间的持久冲突，土耳其语 - 塞浦路斯结，挑衅土耳其的外国政治，伊朗在该地区的扩大影响力以及超级力量在区域政治中的影响都讨论了了解对天然气出口决策的地缘政治影响。本文的结论是，政策建议通知决策者了解经济和地缘政治观点的可能出口方案。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2020年第5期|111369.1-111369.11|共11页
  • 作者

    Salameh R.; Chedid R.;

  • 作者单位

    Amer Univ Beirut Energy Studies Program POB 11-0236 Beirut 11072020 Lebanon;

    Amer Univ Beirut Dept Elect & Comp Engn POB 11-0236 Beirut 11072020 Lebanon;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Energy policy; Gas pipeline economics; Geopolitics; Natural gas export;

    机译：能源政策;天然气管道经济学;地缘政治;天然气出口;

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