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Heat demand in the Swedish residential building stock - pathways on demand reduction potential based on socio-technical analysis

机译：瑞典住宅建筑股票的热需求 - 基于社会技术分析的需求减少潜力

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摘要

A transition to a more efficient heat energy system requires the consideration of drivers covering behavioural change, upgrades of the building stock and substitution or improvements in technologies in use. Sweden has set the target to reduce total energy demand per heated area in buildings by 50% by 2050 compared to 1995. This study aims to estimate the potential for reducing heat energy demand in the Swedish residential building stock taking into account behavioural, structural and technological categories of drivers. A combination of bottom-up energy modelling with scenario methodology informed by socio-technical analysis of barriers was used. Our results show that the target can be achieved by combining at least two of the categories of drivers. However, it is noteworthy that the technological category, which has by far the lowest level of barriers, almost reaches the target largely owing to the high impact for single-family houses, showing the crucial role of changes in the technology mix. However, as the same drivers have different demand reduction potential in the two main building types in Sweden, single and multi-family houses, this calls for policymakers to lead on initiatives that foster a combination of technological, behavioural and structural improvements for the latter.
机译：向更有效的热能系统过渡需要考虑涵盖行为变化的司机，建筑物股票和替代或使用技术的改进。瑞典设定了1995年建筑物每次加热面积的总能源需求的目标，而1995年旨在估算瑞典住宅建筑物中减少热能需求的潜力，考虑到行为，结构和技术司机类别。利用了通过社会技术分析障碍的社会技术分析所了解的场景方法的组合。我们的结果表明，通过组合至少两个司机类别可以实现目标。然而，值得注意的是，经过迄今为止最低障碍水平的技术类别，几乎达到了单家庭房屋的高影响力，几乎达到了目标，呈现了技术组合变化的关键作用。然而，随着瑞典，单家和多家庭住宅的两个主要建筑类型的同一司机的需求降低潜力，这呼吁政策制定者领导促进后者技术，行为和结构改善的组合。

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