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On some economic principles of the energy transition

机译：论能源转型的一些经济原则

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摘要

Energy transitions are complex processes difficult to characterize using a small number of features. We provide a simple framework for the energy transition, pointing out that some scenarios have a higher probability. The document is organized around four key propositions: (i) the current energy transition is driven by policies rather than by technology improvements; (ii) the energy transition disrupts liberalized electricity markets and undermines their economic foundation; (iii) given the current technologies and technological perspectives, the energy transition to renewable sources is going to be incomplete; (iv) there is a change in consumer preferences for cleaner energy, demanding new business models. These propositions lead to the following consequences: (a) the outcome in terms of electricity prices and energy production will depend on the policies applied, as there are multiple possible policies and paths of energy transition; (b) a complete transition based on renewable energy may be technically possible, but difficult to manage in liberalized markets, requiring a new design; (c) there is a change in consumers preferences towards decarbonized energy, creating new business opportunities and jeopardizing traditional business models. It is difficult to make accurate predictions on the energy transition, but we provide general guidelines for policymakers, companies and investors.
机译：能量转换是复杂的过程难以使用少量特征来表征。我们为能源转换提供了一个简单的框架，指出一些方案具有更高的概率。该文件围绕四个关键命题组织：（i）目前的能源转换由政策而不是技术改进驱动; （ii）能源转型扰乱自由化电力市场，破坏其经济基础; （iii）鉴于目前的技术和技术观点，能源转型至可再生能源将是不完整的; （iv）对清洁能源的消费者偏好有变化，要求新的商业模式。这些命题导致以下后果：（a）电价和能源生产方面的结果取决于所申请的政策，因为有多项可能的能源转型政策和路径; （b）在技术上，基于可再生能源的完整过渡可能是可能的，但在自由化市场中难以管理，需要新的设计; （c）消费者偏好对脱碳能源的偏好，创造新的商机和危害传统商业模式。很难对能源转型做出准确的预测，但我们为政策制定者，公司和投资者提供了一般指导方针。

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