Modelling the interaction between policies and international trade flows for liquid biofuels: an agent-based modelling approach

van Tol M. C. M.; Moncada J. A.; Lukszo Z.; Weijnen M.

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Modelling the interaction between policies and international trade flows for liquid biofuels: an agent-based modelling approach

机译：液体生物燃料政策与国际贸易流量的互动：基于代理的建模方法

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World biofuel production and trade have grown exponentially in the last decade. Nevertheless, the interaction between the markets for oilseeds (food/feed/bioenergy) and liquid vegetable oil-based biofuels is overwhelmingly complex and thus not well understood. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to provide insights into the effect of farmers' behaviour on trade flows and biodiesel production and to shed light on the influence of import tariffs for both palm oil and biodiesel on system behaviour. This new approach enables us to assess different types of rational economic behaviour for the adoption of crops by farmers. Results show that model outcomes can vary substantially based on the assumptions made concerning the behaviour of farmers. Moreover, we found that biodiesel trade and production are more sensitive to a change in the EU-28's biodiesel import tariff than to a change in the EU-28's palm oil import tariff. Overall, our results show that social processes, actors' heterogeneity, and institutions play an important role in the behaviour of the system.

机译：世界生物燃料生产和贸易在过去十年中呈指数增长。然而，油籽市场（食品/饲料/生物能量）和液体植物油基生物燃料之间的相互作用是绝大多数复杂的，因此不太了解。在这项研究中，我们开发了一种基于空间明确的代理的模型，为农民行为对贸易流量和生物柴油生产的影响以及揭示了棕榈油和生物柴油对系统行为的影响的洞察力。这种新方法使我们能够评估农民采购农作物的不同类型的合理经济行为。结果表明，模型结果可以基本上取决于对农民行为的假设。此外，我们发现生物柴油贸易和生产对EU-28生物柴油进口关税的变化更敏感而不是欧盟-28棕榈油进口关税的变化。总体而言，我们的结果表明，社会流程，演员的异质性和机构在系统的行为中发挥着重要作用。

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《Energy Policy》 |2021年第2期|112021.1-112021.13|共13页
作者
van Tol M. C. M.; Moncada J. A.; Lukszo Z.; Weijnen M.;
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作者单位

Delft Univ Technol Fac Technol Policy & Management Jaffalaan 5 NL-2628 BX Delft Netherlands;

Katholieke Univ Leuven Energy Inst Div Appl Mech & Energy Convers Dept Mech Engn Celestijnenlaan 300A Box 2421 B-3001 Leuven Belgium;

Delft Univ Technol Fac Technol Policy & Management Jaffalaan 5 NL-2628 BX Delft Netherlands;

Delft Univ Technol Fac Technol Policy & Management Jaffalaan 5 NL-2628 BX Delft Netherlands;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
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关键词
International trade flows; Liquid biofuels; Agent-based modelling (ABM); Policy exploration; Economic behaviour farmers;

机译：国际贸易流量;液体生物燃料;基于代理的建模（ABM）;政策探索;经济行为农民;

Modelling the interaction between policies and international trade flows for liquid biofuels: an agent-based modelling approach

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