North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks

Brown Maxwell; Siddiqui Sauleh; Avraam Charalampos; Bistline John; Decarolis Joseph; Eshraghi Hadi; Giarola Sara; Hansen Matthew; Johnston Peter; Khanal Saroj; Molar-Cruz Anahi

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North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks

机译：北美能源系统对天然气价格冲击的反应

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As of 2020, North American natural gas extraction and use in the electricity sector have both reached all-time highs. The combination of North America's increased reliance on natural gas with a potential disruption to the natural gas market has several energy security implications. Additionally, policymakers interested in economic resiliency will find this study's results useful for informing the implications of the energy sectors' longterm planning and investment decisions. This paper evaluates how both the electricity and natural gas sectors could respond to hypothetical gas price shocks under different system configurations. We impose unforeseen natural gas price shocks under reference and alternative configurations resulting from a renewable generation mandate or variations to renewable capacity costs. Results from several different models are presented for the electricity and natural gas sectors separately for Canada, Mexico, and the United States. Generally, the US becomes more (less) reliant on electricity imports from Canada given a high (low) gas price shock but increases (decreases) exports to Mexico. The renewable mandate is demonstrated to buffer electricity price increases under high price shocks but price reductions under the low price shocks are dampened given less flexibility to take advantage of the low-priced natural gas. The United States is demonstrated to reduce natural gas production and net exports with high natural gas price shocks given a reduction in demand.

机译：截至2020年，北美天然气提取和电力部门的使用都达到了历史高位。北美依赖天然气依赖的组合具有潜在的天然气市场的潜在破坏，有几种能源安全影响。此外，对经济弹性感兴趣的政策制定者将发现该研究的结果可用于了解能源行业的长期规划和投资决策的影响。本文评估了电力和天然气部门在不同的系统配置下的假设燃气价格震动。我们在参考和替代配置下施加了不可预见的天然气价格冲击，这是由可再生代的授权或可再生能力成本的变化产生的替代配置。对于加拿大，墨西哥和美国的电力和天然气部门提供了几种不同型号的结果。一般来说，给予加拿大的电力进口量更加（较低）依赖于高（低）的天然气价格休克，但增加（减少）对墨西哥的出口。可再生授权被证明缓冲电价在高价震动下增加，但低价震动下的价格减少可抑制利用低价天然气的灵活性。鉴于降低需求，美国将减少天然气生产和高天然气价格冲击的天然气生产和净出口。

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来源
《Energy Policy》 |2021年第2期|112046.1-112046.11|共11页
作者
Brown Maxwell; Siddiqui Sauleh; Avraam Charalampos; Bistline John; Decarolis Joseph; Eshraghi Hadi; Giarola Sara; Hansen Matthew; Johnston Peter; Khanal Saroj; Molar-Cruz Anahi;
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作者单位

US DOE Natl Renewable Energy Lab Washington DC 20585 USA;

Amer Univ Dept Environm Sci Washington DC 20016 USA;

Johns Hopkins Univ Dept Civil Engn Baltimore MD 21218 USA;

Elect Power Res Inst Washington DC USA;

North Carolina State Univ Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn Raleigh NC USA;

North Carolina State Univ Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn Raleigh NC USA;

Imperial Coll London Dept Earth Sci & Engn London England;

Canada Energy Regulator Calgary AB Canada;

Environm & Climate Change Canada Gatineau PQ Canada;

US DOE Natl Renewable Energy Lab Washington DC 20585 USA;

Tech Univ Munich Dept Elect & Comp Engn Munich Germany;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
Energy security; Resilience; Price shocks;

机译：能源安全;弹性;价格冲击;

North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks

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