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Economic and environmental costs of replacing nuclear fission with solar and wind energy in Sweden

机译：瑞典用太阳能和风能替代核裂变的经济和环境成本

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摘要

Nuclear power is facing an uncertain future in Sweden due to political directives that are seeking to phase out this energy source over coming decades. Here we examine the environmental and economic costs of hypothetical future renewable-energy-focused cases compared with the current nuclear and hydroelectricity-centred mix in Sweden. We show that if wind and photovoltaics replace entire nuclear power while maintaining the current level of dispatchable backup capacity including hydroelectric power and peak gas power, 154 GW of wind power will be required and will generate 427.1 TWh (compared with the actual demand of 143.7 TWh) to reliably meet demand each hour of the year. As a consequence, the annual spending on electricity systems will be five times higher than the status quo. Increasing dispatchable power, increasing transmission capacities to other countries, and generating electricity from combined heat and power plants even when there is no heat demand, will together reduce the required capacities of wind and solar photovoltaic by half, but it will double the greenhouse gas emissions during the combustion process. In conclusion, our economic and greenhouse-gas emissions analyses demonstrate that replacing nuclear power with renewables will be neither economic nor environmentally friendly with regards to the climate.
机译：由于政治指令正在努力在未来几十年内逐步淘汰这种能源，因此瑞典的核电面临不确定的未来。在这里，我们与瑞典当前以核电和水电为中心的组合相比，考察了假设的未来可再生能源为重点的案例的环境和经济成本。我们表明，如果风能和光伏发电替代整个核能，同时保持当前可调度备用容量（包括水力发电和峰值瓦斯发电）的水平，则将需要154 GW的风能，并将产生427.1 TWh（而实际需求为143.7 TWh ），以可靠地满足每年的每个小时的需求。结果，电力系统的年度支出将比现状高五倍。即使在没有热量需求的情况下，增加可调度的电力，增加向其他国家的输电能力以及利用热电联产来发电，这将使风能和太阳能光伏所需的容量合计减少一半，但会使温室气体排放量增加一倍在燃烧过程中。总之，我们的经济和温室气体排放分析表明，就气候而言，用可再生能源代替核能既不经济也不环保。

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