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Cross-impact analysis of Finnish electricity system with increased renewables: Long-run energy policy challenges in balancing supply and consumption

机译：具有可再生能源增加的芬兰电力系统的交叉影响分析：平衡供需关系的长期能源政策挑战

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摘要

Climate change and global economic pressures are strong drivers for energy economies to transition towards climate-neutrality, low-carbon economy and better energy and resource efficiencies. The response to these pressures, namely the increased use of renewable energy, creates a set of new challenges related to supply demand balance for energy policy and electricity system planning. This study analyses the emergent problems resulting from the renewable energy response. These complex aspects of change in the electricity system are analysed with a cross-impact model based on an expert-driven modeling process, consisting of workshops, panel evaluations and individual expert work. The model is then analysed using a novel computational cross-impact technique, EXIT. The objective of the study is to map the important direct drivers of change in the period 2017-2030 in electricity consumption and production in Finland, construct a cross-impact model from this basis, and discover the emergent and systemic dynamics of the modeled system by analysis of this model.
机译：气候变化和全球经济压力是能源经济向气候中和，低碳经济以及更高的能源和资源效率过渡的强大动力。对这些压力的应对，即增加可再生能源的使用，带来了一系列与能源政策和电力系统规划的供需平衡有关的新挑战。这项研究分析了可再生能源响应所引起的紧急问题。通过基于专家驱动的建模过程的交叉影响模型，对电力系统变化的这些复杂方面进行了分析，该模型包括研讨会，小组评估和专家个人工作。然后，使用新型计算交叉影响技术EXIT对模型进行分析。该研究的目的是绘制2017-2030年期间芬兰电力消费和生产变化的重要直接动因，并在此基础上构建交叉影响模型，并通过以下方法发现建模系统的新兴和系统动力学：该模型的分析。

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