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Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector

机译：节能减排和二氧化碳减排潜力的情景分析，以提高日本2030年住宅领域的减排目标

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摘要

This paper assesses to what extent CO2 emissions from electricity in the residential sector can be further reduced in Japan beyond its post-2020 mitigation target (known as "Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)"). The paper examines the reduction potential of electricity demand and CO2 emissions in the residential sector by conducting a scenario analysis. Electricity consumption scenarios are set up using a time-series regression model, and used to forecast the electricity consumption patterns to 2030. The scenario analysis also includes scenarios that reduce electricity consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and energy saving measures. The obtained results show that Japan can reduce electricity consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential sector in 2030 more than the Japanese post-2020 mitigation target indicates. At the maximum, the electricity consumption could be reduced by 35 TWh, which contributes to 55.4 MtCO(2) of emissions reduction in 2030 compared to 2013 if the voluntarily targeted CO2 intensity of electricity is achieved. The result implies that Japan has the potential to ratchet up post-2020 mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
机译：本文评估了在日本，到2020年后的减排目标（被称为“国家自主贡献计划（INDC）”），住宅部门电力中的二氧化碳排放可以进一步减少多少。本文通过进行情景分析，研究了住宅部门电力需求和二氧化碳排放量的减少潜力。使用时间序列回归模型建立用电量情景，并用于预测到2030年的用电量模式。情景分析还包括通过提高能效和节能措施减少用电量的情景。获得的结果表明，到2030年，日本可以比日本的2020年减排目标所表明的减少住宅部门的电力消耗和二氧化碳排放量更多。如果自愿达到目标CO2强度，则最多可将耗电量减少35 TWh，与2013年相比，到2030年将减少55.4 MtCO（2）。结果表明，日本有可能提高根据《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）巴黎协定所讨论的2020年后减排目标。

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