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Low-carbon scenarios for Russia's energy system: A participative backcasting approach

机译：俄罗斯能源系统的低碳情景：一种参与性的反向投射方法

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Despite the high profile of climate change in scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has thus far failed to commit to an emission reduction target based on the latest science. Given Russia is a key supplier of fossil fuels, a major greenhouse gas emitter, and climate impacts on its vast territory likely to have far-reaching consequences, this contextual research shows that the country's current policies fall woefully short of what is required to implement the Paris Agreement. To support Russia in developing informed, internally consistent and scientifically literate energy policies, this paper presents low-carbon emission trajectories commensurate with the 2 degrees C goal, using stakeholder-informed backcasting. The results illustrate that even if Russia's CO2 emissions peak in 2017, a reduction rate of at least 9% per year between 2020 and 2030 is required to meet a 2 degrees C budget constraint. These sustained rates are in excess of anything achieved globally or, indeed, deemed possible within most studies. Such emission reductions would involve unprecedented material changes to Russia's energy system, including both rapidly cutting energy demand and building extensive low-carbon infrastructures. Nevertheless, failure to transform Russia's existing policies will likely have global repercussions for achieving the Paris Agreement's goals.
机译：尽管在科学和政策讨论中气候变化问题备受瞩目，但俄罗斯政府迄今仍未致力于基于最新科学的减排目标。考虑到俄罗斯是化石燃料的主要供应国，主要的温室气体排放国，并且其广阔的领土上的气候影响可能会产生深远的影响，这项背景研究表明，该国目前的政策严重不足以实施该政策。巴黎协定。为了支持俄罗斯制定知情的，内部一致的，具有科学素养的能源政策，本文使用利益相关者告知的反向预测方法，提出了与2摄氏度目标相称的低碳排放轨迹。结果表明，即使俄罗斯的CO2排放量在2017年达到峰值，但要满足2摄氏度的预算约束，在2020年至2030年之间每年至少要减少9％的排放量。这些持续的速度超过了全球范围内或实际上在大多数研究中认为可能达到的速度。这种减排将涉及俄罗斯能源系统的空前重大变化，包括迅速削减能源需求和建设广泛的低碳基础设施。尽管如此，如果不改变俄罗斯现有的政策，可能会对实现《巴黎协定》的目标产生全球影响。

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