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首页> 外文期刊>Energy Policy >Energy price slump and policy response in the coal-chemical industry district: A case study of Ordos with a system dynamics model
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Energy price slump and policy response in the coal-chemical industry district: A case study of Ordos with a system dynamics model

机译：煤化工区能源价格暴跌与政策对策：以系统动力学模型为例的鄂尔多斯市

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摘要

We employ system dynamics method towards a coal-chemical industry district economy evolution model, using coal industry, the coal-chemical industry, their downstream industries, and the manufacture-related service industry. Moreover, we construct energy price and policy response scenarios based on Ordos' management experience. The results show that the energy price slump had a negative impact on the overall economic development of the coal-chemical industry district, despite promoting non-resource industries. Furthermore, policies had different effects on the industry's output value and profit. In the long-term, developing alternative industries (AI) helps increase the industrial output value and profit. Decreasing value added tax (VAT) has immediate results and a distinctive effect on industrial short-term production value and profit, its long-term effect being limited. The effect of production limit (PL) on industrial profit is stronger than output value, and financial support (FS) is more conducive to improve the latter. However, coal mining and coal-chemical loan increases decrease the gross industrial profit level. Technology innovation (TI) has the best individual policy overall effect on production value and profits. Furthermore, the simultaneous implementation of PL, TI and AI can generate the synergy effect for each of them. And the simultaneous implementation of VAT and one or couple of other policies will generate the crowding-out effect both for VAT and other policies.
机译：我们采用系统动力学方法，对煤炭化工，煤炭化工，下游产业以及与制造业相关的服务业进行建模，以建立煤化工区经济发展模型。此外，我们根据鄂尔多斯的管理经验构建能源价格和政策应对方案。结果表明，能源价格暴跌尽管促进了非资源产业，但对煤化工区的整体经济发展产生了负面影响。此外，政策对行业的产值和利润有不同的影响。从长远来看，发展替代产业（AI）有助于增加工业产值和利润。降低增值税（VAT）具有立竿见影的效果，并且对工业短期生产价值和利润具有显着影响，其长期影响有限。生产极限（PL）对工业利润的影响要强于产值，而财政支持（FS）更有利于提高后者。但是，煤炭开采和煤化工贷款的增加降低了工业总利润水平。技术创新（TI）对产值和利润具有最佳的个体政策总体效果。此外，同时实施PL，TI和AI可以为它们中的每一个产生协同效应。同时实施增值税和一项或多项其他政策将对增值税和其他政策产生挤出效应。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2017年第5期|325-339|共15页
  • 作者

    Wang Delu; Ma Gang; Song Xuefeng; Liu Yun;

  • 作者单位

    China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Management, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    China Univ Min & Technol, Sch Management, Xuzhou 221116, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Nanjing Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Management Sci & Ind Engn, Nanjing 210003, Jiangsu, Peoples R China;

    Univ Lancaster, Sch Management, Lancaster LA2 0PJ, England;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Energy price; Policy response; Coal-chemical industry district; System dynamics; Scenario analysis;

    机译：能源价格;政策响应;煤化工区;系统动力学;情景分析;

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