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Germany's climate policy: Facing an automobile dilemma

机译：德国的气候政策：面临汽车困境

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摘要

Germany has one of the most ambitious climate policy goals worldwide, having pledged to reduce national emissions by 40% by 2020, and 80-95% by 2050 (base year: 1990). 2015 data suggests that progress on decarbonisation has slowed, also because emissions from the transport sector have grown. Road transport, which is contributing 20.5% to Germany's CO2 emissions, has become a major obstacle to achieving the country's policy goals. This paper analyses energy use from road transport in order to provide a better understanding of emissions from this sub-sector. Data is derived from representative longitudinal household surveys as well as mobility and fuel diaries for the period 2002-2015. Analysis reveals significant growth in energy-inefficient car choices, as well as considerable differences in mobility patterns (distances driven, driving styles) and actual fuel consumption between car segments. Findings suggest that German transport policies will fail to deliver significant emission reductions if complexities in car model choices and use patterns are ignored. Both command-and-control and market-based measures will be needed to align the transport sector with climate goals, while persisting policy inconsistencies will also have to be addressed. Findings are of central relevance for EU-wide and global climate policy in the transport sector:
机译：德国是全球最雄心勃勃的气候政策目标之一，已承诺到2020年将国家排放量减少40％，到2050年减少80-95％（基准年：1990年）。 2015年的数据表明，脱碳进程有所放缓，这也是因为交通运输部门的排放量增加了。公路运输占德国二氧化碳排放量的20.5％，已成为实现德国政策目标的主要障碍。本文分析了公路运输的能源使用情况，以便更好地了解该子行业的排放。数据来自代表性的纵向家庭调查以及2002-2015年期间的出行和燃料日记。分析表明，低能耗汽车的选择显着增长，并且各路段之间的出行方式（行驶距离，驾驶方式）和实际油耗存在显着差异。研究结果表明，如果忽略了汽车模型选择和使用方式的复杂性，德国的交通政策将无法实现大幅减排。为了使运输部门与气候目标保持一致，既需要指挥控制又要采取基于市场的措施，同时还必须解决持续存在的政策矛盾。研究结果对于整个欧盟和交通运输领域的全球气候政策具有核心意义：

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