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Consequences of lower oil prices and stranded assets for Russia's sustainable fiscal stance

机译：较低的油价和搁浅的资产对俄罗斯可持续财政立场的后果

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Despite substantial oil and gas revenue Russia's fiscal stance is unsustainable. Under our benchmark assumptions the permanent-income rule requires a permanent tightening of the fiscal stance by 4.6%-points of GDP. Delaying it by a decade implies that the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by a further 0.9%-point. This benchmark optimal policy ensures that depletion of oil and gas wealth is matched by an equal increase in above-ground financial wealth. Its merits are highlighted by comparing it with the tougher alternative of the bird-in hand rule and with projecting the current fiscal stance. If oil and gas revenue rises by a half due to higher prices or more discoveries, the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by only 3.2%-points of GDP. However, if a large chunk of oil and gas has to be kept in the soil to meet international agreements to keep global warming below 2 degrees C, the permanent transfer drops to 2.0% of GDP and the fiscal stance needs to be tightened by 5.5%-points of GDP.
机译：尽管石油和天然气收入可观，俄罗斯的财政立场仍不可持续。根据我们的基准假设，永久收入规则要求将财政立场永久收紧GDP的4.6％。将其推迟十年意味着需要进一步提高财政立场0.9个百分点。这项基准最优政策可确保油气财富的消耗与地上金融财富的均等增长相匹配。通过将其与“牵手规则”的更强替代方案以及预测当前的财政立场进行比较，突出了其优点。如果由于较高的价格或更多的发现而使石油和天然气收入增加一半，则仅需将财政立场紧缩至GDP的3.2％。但是，如果必须将大量的石油和天然气保留在土壤中以符合国际协议以将全球变暖保持在2摄氏度以下，则永久性转移支付会降低至GDP的2.0％，而财政立场必须收紧5.5％ GDP点。

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