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Natural gas and spillover from the US Clean Power Plan into the Paris Agreement

机译:天然气和美国清洁能源计划向巴黎协定的溢出

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摘要

Climate change has been identified as one of the today's great challenges, and mitigation likely requires policy intervention. As such, in 2015 the United States introduced the Clean Power Plan (CPP) which aims to reduce CO2 emissions from electricity production 32% from 2005 levels by 2030 and the Paris Agreement, which seeks to reduce national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, measured by global warming potential (GWP), 28% from 2005 levels by 2025. However, it remains unknown how the more narrowly-scoped CPP might affect the ability to achieve wider-scoped national GHG targets like the Paris Agreement. In our current state-of-world, characterized by inexpensive natural gas, the CPP will be met through large shifts from high-emitting coal power to less-emitting natural gas power, which translates to a 9.6% reduction in total US 100-year GWP without accounting for the fugitive methane. Spillover from fugitive methane could cut this reduction modestly by 0.2-1.4% or as much as 4.4% if evaluated using 20-year GWP elucidating how different assumptions leads to different perspectives of natural gas as a "bridge fuel". The results here demonstrate the need to coordinate policies either through additional policy (e.g. regulation of fugitive methane) or a larger-scoped CPP that includes upstream activities.
机译:气候变化已被认为是当今最大的挑战之一,缓解气候变化可能需要政策干预。因此,美国于2015年推出了《清洁电力计划》(CPP),旨在到2030年将电力生产中的二氧化碳排放量比2005年减少32%。《巴黎协定》则力求减少国家温室气体(GHG)的排放,以全球变暖潜能值(GWP)为基础,到2025年将比2005年增长28%。但是,范围更窄的CPP如何影响实现更广泛范围的国家温室气体目标(如《巴黎协定》)的能力仍然未知。在当前以廉价天然气为特征的世界现状下,CPP将通过从高排放煤电向少排放天然气电的重大转变来实现,这意味着美国100年总排放量减少了9.6%全球变暖潜能值不包括逃逸性甲烷。如果使用20年全球变暖潜能值进行评估,阐明不同假设如何导致天然气成为“桥梁燃料”的不同观点,那么来自逃逸性甲烷的溢出可能会将该减少幅度适当地减少0.2-1.4%或多达4.4%。此处的结果表明,需要通过其他政策(例如对逃逸性甲烷的管制)或更大范围的包括上游活动的CPP来协调政策。

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