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An assessment of a proposed ETS in Australia by using the MONASH-Green model

机译:使用MONASH-Green模型对澳大利亚拟议的ETS进行评估

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摘要

Using the MONASH-Green model and a database containing detailed energy sectors, this paper evaluates the effects of a proposed emissions trading scheme on the Australian economy and the emissions levels. The simulation results indicate that the price of carbon permits has to increase from A$4.1 per tonne in 2015 through A$13.1 per tonne in 2020 to A$41.3 per tonne in 2030 to achieve a target of 28% below the 2005 level in 2030. The main buyers of permits would be the agricultural sector, black-coal electricity sector and brown coal electricity sector. Compared to the business-as-usual scenario, Australia's GDP is projected to be 0.85% lower in 2020 and 1.6% lower in 2030. Household welfare, measured in terms of equivalent variations, will increase due to compensations provided by the government. The results also lend strong support towards the transition to renewable energy. The stylised model was adapted to inform the results of the full model.
机译:本文使用MONASH-Green模型和包含详细能源部门的数据库,评估了拟议的排放交易计划对澳大利亚经济和排放水平的影响。模拟结果表明,碳许可证的价格必须从2015年的每吨4.1澳元增加到2020年的每吨13.1澳元,到2030年的每吨41.3澳元,以实现2030年低于2005年水平28%的目标。许可证的购买者将是农业部门,黑煤电力部门和褐煤电力部门。与通常的情况相比,澳大利亚的GDP预计在2020年下降0.85%,在2030年下降1.6%。按等价变动衡量的家庭福利将因政府提供的补偿而增加。结果也为向可再生能源的过渡提供了强有力的支持。风格化的模型适用于告知完整模型的结果。

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