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China's farewell to coal: A forecast of coal consumption through 2020

机译：中国告别煤炭：2020年煤炭消费量预测

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摘要

In recent decades, China has encountered serious environmental problem, especially severe air pollution that has affected eastern and northern China frequently. Because most air pollutants in China are closely related to coal combustion, the restriction of coal consumption is critical to the improvement of the environment in China. In this study, a panel of 29 Chinese provinces from 1995 to 2012 is utilized to predict China's coal consumption through 2020. After controlling for the spatial correlation of coal consumption among neighboring provinces, an inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) between coal consumption per capita and GOP per capita in China is detected. Furthermore, based on the estimation results and reasonable predictions of key control variables, China's provincial and national coal consumption through 2020 is forecasted. Specifically, under the benchmark scenario, consumption is expected to continue growing at a decreasing rate until 2020, when China's coal consumption would be approximately 4.43 billion tons. However, if China can maintain relatively high growth rate (an annual growth rate of 7.8 percent), the turning point in total coal consumption would occur in 2019, with projected consumption peaking at 4.16 billion tons. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机译：近几十年来，中国遇到了严重的环境问题，特别是严重的空气污染，这经常影响到中国东部和北部。由于中国大多数空气污染物与燃煤密切相关，因此限制煤炭消耗对改善中国环境至关重要。在这项研究中，利用1995年至2012年中国29个省份的面板来预测到2020年中国的煤炭消费量。在控制了相邻省份之间煤炭消费量的空间相关性之后，煤炭之间的倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）检测中国的人均消费量和人均GOP。此外，根据估算结果和对关键控制变量的合理预测，可以预测到2020年中国各省和全国的煤炭消费量。具体来说，在基准情景下，预计到2020年消费量将继续以下降的速度增长，到2020年中国的煤炭消费量将约为44.3亿吨。但是，如果中国能够保持相对较高的增长率（年增长率为7.8％），则煤炭总消费量的转折点将出现在2019年，预计消费量将达到41.6亿吨的峰值。 （c）2015 Elsevier Ltd.保留所有权利。

著录项

  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2015年第11期|444-455|共12页
  • 作者

    Hao Yu; Zhang Zong-Yong; Liao Hua; Wei Yi-Ming;

  • 作者单位

    Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China|Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China|Collaborat Innovat Ctr Elect Vehicles Beijing, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;

    Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China|Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China|Collaborat Innovat Ctr Elect Vehicles Beijing, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;

    Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China|Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China|Collaborat Innovat Ctr Elect Vehicles Beijing, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;

    Beijing Inst Technol, Ctr Energy & Environm Policy Res, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China|Beijing Inst Technol, Sch Management & Econ, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China|Collaborat Innovat Ctr Elect Vehicles Beijing, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Coal consumption; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Spatial correlation; Panel data; Forecast;

    机译：煤炭消耗;环境库兹涅茨曲线;空间相关性;面板数据;预测;

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