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Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices

机译：脱碳情景下的能源安全：不同技术和政策选择下的评估框架和评估

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摘要

How would a low-carbon energy transformation affect energy security? This paper proposes a framework to evaluate energy security under long-term energy scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Energy security is defined as low vulnerability of vital energy systems, delineated along geographic and sectoral boundaries. The proposed framework considers vulnerability as a combination of risks associated with inter-regional energy trade and resilience reflected in energy intensity and diversity of energy sources and technologies. We apply this framework to 43 scenarios generated by the MESSAGE model as part of the Global Energy Assessment, including one baseline scenario and 42 'low-carbon' scenarios where the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2 ℃ over the pre-industrial level. By and large, low-carbon scenarios are associated with lower energy trade and higher diversity of energy options, especially in the transport sector. A few risks do emerge under low-carbon scenarios in the latter half of the century. They include potentially high trade in natural gas and hydrogen and low diversity of electricity sources. Trade is typically lower in scenarios which emphasize demand-side policies as well as non-tradable energy sources (nuclear and renewables) while diversity is higher in scenarios which limit the penetration of intermittent renewables.
机译：低碳能源转型将如何影响能源安全？本文提出了一个框架，用于评估由综合评估模型生成的长期能源情景下的能源安全。能源安全被定义为重要能源系统的低脆弱性，沿着地理和部门边界进行了描述。拟议的框架将脆弱性视为与区域间能源贸易和能源强度以及能源和技术的多样性所反映的复原力相关的风险的组合。我们将此框架应用到MESSAGE模型作为全球能源评估的一部分而生成的43个情景中，包括一个基准情景和42个“低碳”情景，在这些情景中，全球平均温度限制在工业化前水平的2℃以内。总体而言，低碳情景与较低的能源贸易和较高的能源选择多样性有关，尤其是在运输部门。在本世纪下半叶，在低碳情景下确实会出现一些风险。其中包括天然气和氢气的潜在高交易量以及低多样性的电源。在强调需求方政策以及不可交易能源（核能和可再生能源）的情况下，贸易通常较低，而在限制间歇性可再生能源渗透的情况下，贸易则较高。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2014年第2期|743-760|共18页
  • 作者

    Jessica Jewell; Aleh Cherp; Keywan Riahi;

  • 作者单位

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,Central European University, Budapest, Hungary,Energy Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria;

    Central European University, Budapest, Hungary,Lund University, Lund, Sweden;

    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria,Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Energy security; Climate change; Indicators;

    机译：能源安全;气候变化;指标;

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