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Modeling decision making as a support tool for policy making on renewable energy development

机译：将决策建模作为可再生能源发展决策的支持工具

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摘要

This paper presents the findings of a study on decision making models for the analysis of capital-risk investors' p on biomass power plants projects. The aim of the work is to improve the support tools for policy makers in the field of renewable energy development. Analytic Network Process (ANP) helps to better understand capital-risk investors p towards different kinds of biomass fueled power plants. The results of the research allow public administration to better foresee the investors' reaction to the incentive system, or to modify the incentive system to better drive investors' decisions. Changing the incentive system is seen as major risk by investors. Therefore, public administration must design better and longer-term incentive systems, forecasting market reactions. For that, two scenarios have been designed, one showing a typical decision making process and another proposing an improved decision making scenario. A case study conducted in Italy has revealed that ANP allows understanding how capital-risk investors interpret the situation and make decisions when investing on biomass power plants; the differences between the interests of public administrations's and promoters', how decision making could be influenced by adding new decision criteria, and which case would be ranked best according to the decision models.
机译：本文介绍了决策模型研究的结果，该模型用于分析生物质电厂项目中的资本风险投资者p。这项工作的目的是改善可再生能源发展领域中决策者的支持工具。分析网络过程（ANP）有助于更好地了解针对各种以生物质为燃料的发电厂的资本风险投资者。研究结果使公共行政部门可以更好地预测投资者对激励系统的反应，或者修改激励系统以更好地推动投资者的决策。改变激励机制被投资者视为主要风险。因此，公共行政部门必须设计更好的长期激励机制，预测市场反应。为此，设计了两种方案，一种方案显示了典型的决策过程，另一种方案则提出了改进的决策方案。在意大利进行的一项案例研究表明，ANP可以帮助理解有资金风险的投资者在投资生物质发电厂时如何解释情况并做出决定；公共行政部门和发起人的利益之间的差异，如何通过添加新的决策标准来影响决策，以及哪种情况在决策模型中排名最高。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2014年第4期|127-137|共11页
  • 作者

    Marco Cannemi; Monica Garcia-Melon; Pablo Aragones-Beltran; Tomas Gomez-Navarro;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Catania, Viale Andrea Doria 6, 95125 Catania, Italy;

    Ingenio (CSIC-UPV), Universitat Politicnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera s, 46022 Valencia, Spain;

    Ingenio (CSIC-UPV), Universitat Politicnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera s, 46022 Valencia, Spain;

    Department of Engineering Projects, Universitat PoHticnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera s, 46022 Valencia, Spain;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Analytic Network Process; Biomass power projects; Capital risk;

    机译：分析网络过程;生物质能发电项目;资金风险;

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