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首页> 外文期刊>Energy Policy >South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs
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South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

机译：韩国能源情景展示了核电如何减少未来的能源和环境成本

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摘要

South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two 'future-mapping' exercises (the 'Governmental' scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ~(-1)), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ~(-1)). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions.
机译：韩国是了解核电在经济持续增长和可再生能源资源有限的国家中未来作用的重要案例研究。我们从数量上比较了两个“未来映射”活动（依赖化石燃料的“政府”方案和强调可再生能源但不包括核能的绿色和平方案）的可持续性。比较是基于一系列环境和技术角度进行的，并与另外两个设想要在核能中发挥主导作用的核情景进行了对比。可持续性指标包括能源成本，外部成本（温室气体排放，空气污染物，土地转化，水的消耗和排放以及安全性）和其他成本。到2050年，以核为中心的情景产生的单位最终能耗的总成本最低（14.37 GJ〜（-1）），而绿色和平组织的情景最高（25.36 GJ〜（-1））。我们使用基于影响和成本指标的多因素分布抽样的概率模拟来估计方案之间的重叠可能性，以了解参数不确定性对综合建议的影响。我们的模拟模型表明，尽管存在内在的不确定性，但大规模扩大核电能力为韩国提供了最可持续的途径，而采用无核途径将更加昂贵，并产生更多的温室气体排放。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2014年第11期|569-578|共10页
  • 作者

    Sanghyun Hong; Corey J.A. Bradshaw; Barry W. Brook;

  • 作者单位

    The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Science, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia;

    The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Science, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia,South Australian Research and Development Institute, P.O. Box 120, Henley Beach 5022, SA, Australia;

    The Environment Institute and School of Earth and Environmental Science, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia,Centre for Energy Technology, University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, SA, Australia;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Future scenario; Sustainability assessment; Nuclear energy; Renewable energy; Energy consumption;

    机译：未来情况;可持续性评估;核能;再生能源;能源消耗;

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