A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

Ajay Gambhir; Niels Schulz; Tamaryn Napp; Danlu Tong; Luis Munuera; Mark Faist; Keywan Riahi

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A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

机译：一种混合建模方法，为中国到2050年的二氧化碳排放量制定情景

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摘要

This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a "hypothetical counterfactual baseline" (HCB) scenario and low carbon ("abatement") scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important.

机译：本文介绍了一种混合建模方法，可用于评估“假设的反事实基准”（HCB）情景和低碳（“减排”）情景的中国能源系统的未来发展。该方法将中国能源系统的技术丰富的综合评估模型（MESSAGE）与帝国理工大学格兰瑟姆气候变化研究所开发的针对交通，建筑和工业部门的一组特定部门，自下而上的能源需求模型相结合伦敦大学。通过在中国经济所有主要领域探索特定于技术的解决方案，我们发现以可再生能源，核能和碳捕集与封存为基础的低碳电力选择为基础的一系列措施将从根本上改变中国的能源结合需求方部门的电气化。这些需求部门的能效选择也很重要。

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来源
《Energy Policy》 |2013年第8期|614-632|共19页
作者
Ajay Gambhir; Niels Schulz; Tamaryn Napp; Danlu Tong; Luis Munuera; Mark Faist; Keywan Riahi;
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作者单位

Crantham Institute for Climate Change. Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom;

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;

Crantham Institute for Climate Change. Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom;

Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, United Kingdom;

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, United Kingdom;

Department of Physics, Imperial College London, United Kingdom;

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria and Craz University of Technology, Austria;

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收录信息美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类
关键词
China; CO_2 emissions; Low-carbon technology;

机译：中国;CO_2排放量;低碳技术;

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7. A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050 [O] . Gambhir, A., Schulz, N.B., Napp, T., 2013

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8. Scenarios or Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America ssing the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model California's Carbon Challenge Phase Ii Volume Ii. [R] . Nelson, J., Mileva, A., Johnston, J., 1980

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A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

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