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首页> 外文期刊>Energy Policy >Supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian oil sands: A comparative study of the costs and CO_2 emissions of mining and in-situ recovery
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Supplying synthetic crude oil from Canadian oil sands: A comparative study of the costs and CO_2 emissions of mining and in-situ recovery

机译：从加拿大油砂中供应合成原油：开采和原位开采成本和CO_2排放量的比较研究

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摘要

High crude oil prices and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels such as non-conventional oil. The paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of synthetic crude oil produced from Canadian oil sands. Synthetic crude oil is obtained by upgrading bitumen that is first produced through mining or in-situ recovery techniques. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying synthetic crude oil. The sensitivity analysis shows that before 2035, the most influential parameters are the learning parameter in the case of in-situ bitumen and the depletion parameter in the case of mined bitumen. After 2035, depletion dominates in both cases. The results show that the social cost of CO_2 has a large impact on the total costs of synthetic crude oil, in particular in the case of synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen, due to the carbon intensity of the recovery techniques: taking into account the social cost of CO_2 adds more than half to the cost of producing synthetic crude oil from mined bitumen in 2050 (mean value), while the cost of producing synthetic crude oil from in-situ bitumen more than doubles.
机译：高昂的原油价格以及常规石油产量的最终下降引发了替代燃料的问题，例如非常规石油。本文描述了一种由加拿大油砂生产的合成原油成本的简单概率模型。合成原油是通过提纯沥青而获得的，沥青首先通过采矿或原位开采技术生产。这项前瞻性分析量化了学习和生产限制对合成原油供应成本的影响。敏感性分析表明，在2035年之前，最具影响力的参数是就地沥青情况下的学习参数和矿山沥青情况下的消耗参数。 2035年之后，在这两种情况下，损耗都占主导。结果表明，由于回收技术的碳强度，CO_2的社会成本对合成原油的总成本有很大的影响，特别是就地沥青合成原油的情况： 2050年，CO_2的社会成本将比从开采的沥青生产合成原油的成本（平均价值）高出一半以上，而就地沥青生产合成原油的成本则增加了一倍以上。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2013年第9期|27-40|共14页
  • 作者

    Aurelie Mejean; Chris Hope;

  • 作者单位

    CIRED, 45bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent-sur-Mame, France;

    Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, CB21AG, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Non-conventional oil; Social cost of CO_2; Probabilistic model;

    机译：非常规石油;CO_2的社会成本;概率模型;

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