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Modelling electricity demand in Ghana revisited: The role of policy regime changes

机译：再次对加纳的电力需求进行建模：政策制度变化的作用

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摘要

As policy regime changes, demand elasticities are unlikely to be constant since individuals change how they form their expectations, and this will change the estimated decision rules. In this paper, the time-varying nature of electricity demand elasticities prior to and post the economic reform period in Ghana is analysed using the FM-OLS. Three different sample periods -pre-reform, post-reform, and full-period-was used in the analysis. The result from the full-sample period revealed that in the long-run electricity demand is significantly affected by industry efficiency, industry value added, and real per capita CDP. Urbanization rate, however, has no significant effect. The pre-reform estimate showed lower income, output, and urbanization elasticities but higher industry energy efficiency elasticity relative to the post-reform period. This suggests that technological change in the pre-reform period has been energy saving whilst technological change in the post reform period has been energy consuming. The result further showed evidence of changing structure of the economy from the more energy intensive sector to the less energy intensive sector after the reform. Government should renew her effort in promoting energy saving technologies in the industrial sector and adjust the industrial structure to encourage the expansion of low energy intensive industries or high technology efficient industries.
机译：随着政策制度的变化，需求弹性不太可能保持恒定，因为个人会改变其形成期望的方式，这将改变估计的决策规则。本文使用FM-OLS分析了加纳经济改革时期前后电力需求弹性的时变性质。分析中使用了三个不同的采样周期-改革前，改革后和整个时期。整个抽样期间的结果表明，从长期来看，电力需求受行业效率，行业增加值和实际人均CDP的影响很大。但是，城市化率没有显着影响。改革前的估计显示，相对于改革后的时期，收入，产出和城市化弹性较低，但工业能效弹性较高。这表明，改革前的技术变革节省了能源，而改革后的技术变革却消耗了能源。结果进一步表明，改革后经济结构从能源密集度较高的部门转变为能源密集度较低的部门。政府应继续努力，在工业领域推广节能技术，并调整产业结构，以鼓励低能耗产业或高技术效率产业的发展。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2013年第10期|42-50|共9页
  • 作者

    Philip Kofi Adorn; William Bekoe;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Economics, University of Ghana, Ghana,Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark;

    Department of Economics, University of Ghana, Ghana;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Electricity demand; Policy regime changes; Ghana;

    机译：电力需求;政策制度变化;加纳;

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