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Setting a standard for electricity pilot studies

机译：制定电力试点研究的标准

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摘要

In-home displays, dynamic pricing, and automated devices aim to reduce residential electricity use-overall and during peak hours. We present a meta-analysis of 32 studies of the impacts of these interventions, conducted in the US or Canada. We find that methodological problems are common in the design of these studies, leading to artificially inflated results relative to what one would expect if the interventions were implemented in the general population. Particular problems include having volunteer participants who may have been especially motivated to reduce their electricity use, letting participants choose their preferred intervention, and having high attrition rates. Using estimates of bias from medical clinical trials as a guide, we recalculate impact estimates to adjust for bias, resulting in values that are often less than half of those reported in the reviewed studies. We estimate that in-home displays were the most effective intervention for reducing overall electricity use (～4% using reported data;～ 3% after adjusting for bias), while dynamic pricing significantly reduced peak demand (～11% reported;～ 6% adjusted), especially when used in conjunction with home automation (-25% reported; -14% adjusted). We conclude with recommendations that can improve pilot studies and the soundness of decisions based on their results.
机译：家用显示器，动态定价和自动化设备旨在减少总体上和高峰时段的居民用电量。我们在美国或加拿大进行了32项关于这些干预措施影响的研究的荟萃分析。我们发现，在这些研究的设计中存在方法学问题，导致相对于如果在普通人群中实施干预措施所期望的结果，人为抬高结果。特殊的问题包括让志愿者参与者特别有动力来减少用电量，让参与者选择自己喜欢的干预措施以及流失率很高。使用医学临床试验的偏倚估计值作为指导，我们重新计算影响估计值以调整偏倚，导致得出的值通常小于所审查研究报告的一半。我们估计，家用显示器是减少总体用电量的最有效干预措施（使用报告的数据约为4％；经过偏差调整后为〜3％），而动态定价显着降低了高峰需求（报告的约为11％；〜6％调整后），尤其是与家庭自动化配合使用时（报告为-25％；调整后为-14％）。我们以可以改善试验研究和基于结果的合理性的建议作为结尾。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2013年第11期|401-409|共9页
  • 作者

    Alexander L. Davis; Tamar Krishnamurti; Baruch Fischhoff; Wandi Bruine de Bruin;

  • 作者单位

    Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, USA;

    Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, USA;

    Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, USA,Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, USA;

    Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, USA,Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    In-home display; Dynamic pricing; Smart thermostat;

    机译：家用显示器;动态定价;智能恒温器;

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