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Potential vehicle fleet CO_2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe

机译：欧洲各种车辆技术部署方案的潜在车队CO_2减少和成本影响

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摘要

The continuous rise in demand for road transportation has a significant effect on Europe's oil dependency and emissions of greenhouse gases. Alternative fuels and vehicle technology can mitigate these effects. This study analyses power-train deployment scenarios for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in EU-27 until 2050. It considers European policy developments on vehicle CO_2 emissions, bio-energy mandates and reductions in the CO_2 footprint of the European energy mix and translates these into comprehensive scenarios for the road transport sector. It quantifies and assesses the potential impact of these scenarios on well-to-wheel (WtW) CO_2 emission reductions primary energy demand evolution, and cost aspects for the prospective vehicle owners. The study reveals that, under the deployed scenarios, the use of bio-fuel blends, technological learning and the deployment of hybrids, battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell vehicles can decrease WtW CO_2 emissions in EU-27 passenger road transport by 35-57% (compared to 2010 levels) and primary energy demand by 29-51 Mtoe as they would benefit from a future assumed decarbonised electricity and hydrogen mix in Europe. Learning effects can lead to acceptable payback periods for vehicle owners of electric drive vehicles.
机译：公路运输需求的持续增长对欧洲对石油的依赖和温室气体的排放产生了重大影响。代用燃料和车辆技术可以减轻这些影响。这项研究分析了直到2050年EU-27的乘用车和轻型商用车的动力总成部署方案。它考虑了欧洲在车辆CO_2排放，生物能源要求以及减少欧洲能源结构的CO_2足迹方面的政策发展，并将其转化纳入公路运输部门的综合方案。它量化和评估了这些情景对轮到井（WtW）CO_2排放量减少，一次能源需求演变以及潜在车主成本方面的潜在影响。该研究表明，在已部署的情景下，使用生物燃料混合物，技术学习以及混合动力，电池电动，插电式混合动力和燃料电池车辆的部署，可以通过以下方式减少EU-27客运道路上的WtW CO_2排放： 35-57％（与2010年的水平相比）和29-51 Mtoe的一次能源需求，因为它们将从未来欧洲假定的脱碳电力和氢气混合中受益。学习效果可以为电动汽车的车主带来可接受的投资回收期。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2012年第1期|p.404-421|共18页
  • 作者

    Guzay Pasaoglu; Michel Honselaar; Christian Thiel;

  • 作者单位

    European Commission, Directorate-General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, Westerduinweg 3, NL-1755 LE Petten, The Netherlands;

    European Commission, Directorate-General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, Westerduinweg 3, NL-1755 LE Petten, The Netherlands;

    European Commission, Directorate-General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, Westerduinweg 3, NL-1755 LE Petten, The Netherlands;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    european road transport sector model; electric drive vehicles; CO_2 emissions;

    机译：欧洲公路运输部门模型;电动汽车;CO_2排放;

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