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A cost-benefit analysis of the EU 20/20/2020 package

机译：欧盟20/20/2020计划的成本效益分析

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摘要

The European Commission did not publish a cost-benefit analysis for its 2020 climate package. This paper fills that gap, comparing the marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction. The uncertainty about the marginal costs of climate change is large and skewed, and estimates partly reflect ethical choices (e.g., the discount rate). The 2010 carbon price in the EU Emissions Trading System can readily be justified by a cost-benefit analysis. Emission reduction is not expensive provided that policy is well-designed, a condition not met by planned EU policy. It is probably twice as expensive as needed, costing one in ten years of economic growth. The EU targets for 2020 are unlikely to meet the benefit-cost test. For a standard discount rate (3% pure rate of time preference), the benefit-cost ratio is rather poor (1/30)-so that benefits need to be very much higher, or costs very much lower than typically assumed to justify the 2020 targets. Only a very low discount rate (0% PRTP) would justify the 20% emission reduction target for 2020.
机译：欧盟委员会未发布其2020年气候计划的成本效益分析。本文填补了这一空白，比较了减少温室气体排放的边际成本和收益。有关气候变化的边际成本的不确定性很大且偏颇，估计值部分反映了道德选择（例如折现率）。成本效益分析可以很容易地证明欧盟排放交易系统中2010年的碳价。如果政策设计合理，而计划中的欧盟政策无法满足这一要求，则减少排放并不昂贵。它的价格可能是所需价格的两倍，相当于十年经济增长的成本之一。欧盟对2020年的目标不太可能达到收益成本测试。对于标准的贴现率（纯3％的时间优先率），收益成本比很差（1/30）-因此收益需要非常高，或者成本要比通常认为合理的成本低得多。 2020年目标。只有非常低的折现率（PRTP为0％）才能证明2020年的减排目标为20％。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2012年第10期|p.288-295|共8页
  • 作者

    Richard S.J. Tol;

  • 作者单位

    Deparment of Economics, Mantell Building, University of Sussex, Falmer, BN1 9RF, UK,Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands,Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    european union; climate policy; cost-benefit analysis;

    机译：欧洲联盟;气候政策;成本效益分析;

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