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Why did the price of solar PV Si feedstock fluctuate so wildly in 2004-2009?

机译：为什么2004-2009年太阳能PV Si原料的价格如此剧烈波动？

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摘要

Great attention has been paid to the origin of observed wild price fluctuations of solar PV Si feedstock in both contract and spot markets during 2004-2009. This paper sheds light on this issue and tries to resolve it by addressing the following questions: what kind of structural shock is underlying the price fluctuations of PV Si feedstock? How can we quantify the magnitude, timing and relative importance of these shocks? What are their dynamic effects on the real price of PV Si feedstock? By carefully studying development conditions, the structural decomposition of the real price of PV Si feedstock is proposed: exchange rate shocks, production cost shocks, aggregate demand shocks and demand shocks specific to feedstock markets. With a Structural Vector Autoregression model, the paper quantifies and verifies the impact of structural shocks on PV Si feedstock real price changes. Based on national data, an analysis is further taken to confirm the essential role of demand shocks specific to feedstock markets in determining sharper price fluctuations during 2004-2009. The results of this study have important implications for national solar PV development, which can be better promoted and administrated if structural shocks in feedstock markets can be carefully evaluated and understood.
机译：在2004年至2009年期间，合同和现货市场上观察到的太阳能PV Si原料的野生价格波动都引起了人们的极大关注。本文阐明了这个问题，并试图通过解决以下问题来解决：PV Si原料的价格波动是什么样的结构性冲击？我们如何量化这些冲击的程度，时机和相对重要性？它们对PV Si原料的实际价格有什么动态影响？通过仔细研究发展条件，提出了光伏硅原料实际价格的结构分解：汇率冲击，生产成本冲击，总需求冲击和特定于原料市场的需求冲击。利用结构矢量自回归模型，本文量化并验证了结构冲击对PV Si原料实际价格变化的影响。根据国家数据，将进一步进行分析，以确认特定于原料市场的需求冲击在确定2004-2009年期间更大的价格波动中的重要作用。这项研究的结果对国家太阳能光伏的发展具有重要意义，如果可以仔细评估和理解原料市场的结构性冲击，则可以更好地促进和管理这一趋势。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2012年第10期|p.572-585|共14页
  • 作者

    Yang Yu; Yuhua Song; Haibo Bao;

  • 作者单位

    College of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province 310007, China,School of Economics and Trade, Ningbo Institute of Technology, Zhejiang University, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province 315100, China;

    College of Economics, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province 310007, China;

    Zhejiang School of Administration, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province 311721, China;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    PV si feedstock; structural shocks; contract and spot price;

    机译：光伏硅原料;结构性冲击;合约和现货价格;

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