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Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy-Energy-Electricity-Environment framework

机译：经济-能源-电力-环境框架下的中国低碳发展研究

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摘要

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy-Energy-Electricity-Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy-electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO_2 emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO_2 emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010-2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.
机译：减排是中国可持续发展的重大挑战。我们总结了过去30年中国在能源效率方面的成功经验，归纳为能源使用管理和资源整合战略规划的贡献，这对于低碳经济至关重要。在经济-能源-电力-环境（E4）框架下，本文研究了中国的低碳发展，并给出了到2030年中国经济增长，能源电力需求，可再生能源发电以及节能减排的前景。在研究低碳能源和电力发展路径的同时，预计将照常工作方案作为基准进行比较。当经济体设法以较少的能源/电力消耗为动力实现其潜在的经济增长时，它被定义为低碳能源/电力，其特征可以在于能源/电力强度和单位能耗的排放量（发电） ）。结果表明，使用EUM，中国可以节省能源43.8亿吨油当量（脚趾），减少CO_2排放量165.5亿吨；与中国的IRSP合作，在2010-2030年期间可以节省1.5 Btoes的能源并减少5.7 Btons的CO_2排放。为了实现巨大的潜力，中国必须改变其经济结构，并在未来很大程度上依靠技术创新。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2011年第5期|p.2596-2605|共10页
  • 作者

    Zhaoguang Hu; Jiahai Yuan; Zheng Hu;

  • 作者单位

    State Grid Energy Research Institute, State Grid Co., China,School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China;

    School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China,Institute of Low Carbon Economy and Trade, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China;

    Bartlett School of the Development Planning Unit, University College London, UK;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    Low carbon Economy-Energy-Electricity-Environment; Energy Usage Management; Integrated Resource Strategic Planning;

    机译：低碳经济-能源-电力-环境;能源使用管理;资源整合战略规划;

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