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Renewable fuels: Policy effectiveness and project risk

机译：可再生燃料：政策有效性和项目风险

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摘要

This paper examines the impact of government policy on the risk profile of a small ethanol production facility. We derive four key results from a simulation model. First, we show that commodity price risk may discourage investment in a project, despite a positive expected rate of return. Second, we show that political uncertainty may have significant impacts on the risk profile of a project. Next, we show that using only production subsidies to attract investors is expensive, since the financial assistance is paid regardless of whether the plant is operating under positive or negative financial conditions. Finally, we show that a capital grant provides a valuable complement to a subsidy, because the grant reduces the amount of value investors must put at risk, and increases their leverage thereby enhancing returns, while the subsidy mitigates commodity price risk. Our results show that compared to a subsidy-only approach, a grant and subsidy combination provides an investment environment with similar downside protection and expected returns for less than 60% of the cost. Further, we show that the two policy tools combined yield a superior investment environment to that created by an equivalent or greater total investment deployed entirely in either of the policy tools without the other.
机译：本文研究了政府政策对小型乙醇生产设施风险状况的影响。我们从仿真模型中得出四个关键结果。首先，我们表明，尽管预期收益率是正值，但商品价格风险可能会阻碍对项目的投资。其次，我们表明政治不确定性可能会对项目的风险状况产生重大影响。接下来，我们表明仅使用生产补贴来吸引投资者是昂贵的，因为无论工厂是在正财务状况还是负财务状况下运营，都将支付财务援助。最后，我们证明了资本赠款是对补贴的宝贵补充，因为赠款减少了投资者必须承担的风险价值，并增加了杠杆作用从而提高了回报，而补贴则减轻了商品价格风险。我们的结果表明，与仅采用补贴的方法相比，赠款与补贴的组合为投资环境提供了类似的下行保护，且预期收益低于成本的60％。此外，我们显示，这两种策略工具相结合所产生的投资环境要优于完全部署在任一策略工具中而没有另一工具的等值或更高总投资所创造的投资环境。

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  • 来源
    《Energy Policy》 |2011年第7期|p.4007-4015|共9页
  • 作者

    Andrew Leach; Joseph Doucet; Trevor Nickel;

  • 作者单位

    Alberta School of Business, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6C 2R6,C1RAN0, Canada,CABREE, Canada;

    Alberta School of Business, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6C 2R6,CABREE, Canada;

    Highmark Renewables Research, Canada;

  • 收录信息 美国《科学引文索引》(SCI);美国《工程索引》(EI);
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    renewable energy; ethanol; government policy;

    机译：可再生能源;乙醇;政府政策;

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